Roy Cooper's Chances of Flipping North Carolina GOP Senate Seat Surge-Poll

Democrat Roy Cooper's chances of beating Republican Michael Whatley to flip North Carolina's Senate seat in the 2026 midterm elections surged in the latest Harper Polling/Carolina Journal survey of the Tar Heel State shared with Newsweek.

North Carolina, a competitive battleground state, has favored Democrats in recent gubernatorial elections but has backed Republicans in presidential and Senate races. Despite North Carolina’s swing-state status, Democrats have not won a Senate seat there since 2008, but hope that could change this November.

Although President Donald Trump narrowly carried North Carolina in each of his three presidential bids, the Democratic Party views the seat as one of its top pickup opportunities in the November midterm. Incumbent Republican Senator Thom Tillis is not running for reelection, and Trump's approval rating both in the state and nationwide has fallen amid pains around the cost of living. The new poll underscores the competitive nature of the race.

North Carolina Senate Race: What New Poll Shows

Cooper led Whatley by more than 11 points in the new poll, with 49.8 percent of respondents saying they would support him in November. Whatley, the former chair of the Republican National Committee (RNC), received 38.7 percent of the vote.

That's an increase in support for Cooper compared to the pollster's March 2026 survey, when the former governor received 48.9 percent, and Whatley received 41.1 percent. It found Cooper with 47.3 percent and Whatley with 38.6 percent support in November 2025. In September 2025, the pollster showed Cooper with 46.1 percent and Whatley with 41.9 percent.

Cooper has a name-recognition advantage over Whatley, with 49.8 percent of North Carolina voters viewing him favorably and 38.5 percent unfavorably, the poll found. Whatley, meanwhile, is viewed favorably by 25.4 percent and unfavorably by 21.9 percent of respondents.

Only 11.7 percent of respondents said they had never heard of or had no opinion of Cooper, compared to 52.7 percent who said the same for Whatley, according to the survey. This suggests that Whatley's political brand in North Carolina is less defined and that he still has the opportunity to build a positive image in the state.

The poll surveyed 600 likely voters from May 10-11, 2026, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

How Popular Is Donald Trump in North Carolina?

Trump's approval rating will be a key challenge Whatley faces heading into the November general election. Midterms are generally viewed as a referendum on a president and his policies, and Trump's declining approval rating threatens to weaken Republicans running in competitive races.

In North Carolina, 41.5 percent of voters approve of Trump, compared to 56.6 percent who disapprove of his job performance, the poll found. Only 39.1 percent of respondents said they believe the country is heading in the right direction, while 57.7 percent said it's heading in the wrong direction.

Voters across the country have soured on Trump in recent months due to concerns about the economy, particularly as the Iran war has sent gas prices surging across the country. In North Carolina, gas prices averaged $4.223 on Thursday, according to AAA data.

Civiqs found that as of Thursday, 41 percent of North Carolina voters approve of Trump, while 56 percent disapprove.

What Do Other Polls and Prediction Markets Show About North Carolina Senate Race?

Cooper leads other polling of the North Carolina Senate race.

• A High Point University/YouGov poll released last month showed him up 8 points with likely voters. Fifty percent of respondents said they would support him, while 42 percent said they intend to cast their ballots for Whatley. It surveyed 703 likely voters from March 26-April 6, 2026, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.
• A Quantus Insights poll suggested a closer race, with 49 percent of respondents supporting Cooper and 44 percent supporting Whatley. It surveyed 987 likely voters from March 31-April 1, 2026, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
• A Catawba College/YouGov poll showed Cooper leading with 48 percent compared to Whatley's 34 percent among likely voters, with 14 percent undecided. It surveyed 1,000 likely voters from March 9-18, 2026, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.58 percentage points.

Prediction markets also favor Cooper, who held an 83 percent chance of victory on both Kalshi and Polymarket as of Thursday morning.

Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates.

Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always accurately predict the future.

North Carolina: Democrats' Elusive Swing State

Democrats have performed well in recent gubernatorial elections in the state but have fallen short in federal elections. The late Senator Kay Hagan was the last to win a Senate race in 2008, when former President Barack Obama also won the state

In 2022, Democrat Cheri Beasley lost to Republican Ted Budd, then a member of the House, by about 3 points. Tillis defeated Democrat Cal Cunningham by less than 2 points in 2020. In 2016, former GOP Senator Richard Burr defeated Democrat Deborah Ross, now a member of Congress, by nearly 6 points.

At the same time, Democrats have held a grip on the governor’s mansion. Democrat Josh Stein, who succeeded Cooper, won November’s race by nearly 15 points after Republican Mark Robinson faced a series of scandals on the campaign trail.

Over the past decade, Democrats have gained ground in the suburbs around Charlotte and Raleigh but have struggled in more rural parts of the state, which were once more competitive when Obama won the state in 2008.

Trump also carried it in each of his three runs, albeit by narrow margins-about 3.6 points in 2016, 1.3 points in 2020 and 3.2 points in 2024.

Democrats' Chances of Flipping Senate Control

Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority, so Democrats must flip four seats to secure a majority. North Carolina is crucial to Democrats' bid to retake control of the Senate in the midterms; it's the only GOP-held seat Trump won by single digits up for grabs in November.

Democrats view the seat in Maine, held by Republican Senator Susan Collins, as another top target, as Maine is a Democratic-leaning state that backed former Vice President Kamala Harris by about 7 points in 2024. Democrats are also on the defensive in two Trump-won states, Georgia and Michigan.

But even if Democrats win all four of those races, Republicans would still have a 51-49 majority, so they are eyeing states where Trump won by double digits, such as Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas, as potential flip opportunities. If Democrats fail to flip North Carolina, their already difficult Senate math becomes even more challenging.

Republicans are favored to hold the Senate in prediction markets. Kalshi gives the GOP a 55 percent chance, while Polymarket gives them a 54 percent chance, of holding onto control of the Senate despite a challenging national environment.

2026 NEWSWEEK DIGITAL LLC.

This story was originally published May 14, 2026 at 9:35 AM.