LA Mayor Candidates' Chances Amid Viral AI Ad War

Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass remains the narrow favorite to win the June 2 mayoral primary, with prediction markets putting her chances at around 54 percent, as viral and controversial AI-driven campaign videos reshape the race.

Those same markets show reality TV personality Spencer Pratt in second place at roughly 28–33 percent, with City Councilmember Nithya Raman trailing in the low teens, pointing to a fragmented contest still defined by uncertainty just weeks before voting begins. LA uses a nonpartisan "top two" system, with all candidates competing in a June primary to reach a head‑to‑head runoff in November unless one candidate wins an outright majority.

The odds underscore a campaign increasingly shaped not just by polling but by a fast‑moving digital information battle, with AI‑generated ads and viral clips playing a growing role in shaping perceptions. Pratt has leaned heavily into that strategy in recent weeks, repeatedly reposting Batman and Star Wars‑themed AI clips that have drawn millions of views online.

And the dynamic was underscored on May 13, when Pratt shared an AI‑generated attack video on social media and suggested it had originated from Bass's campaign. Posting on X, Pratt wrote: "Karen Bass got FOMO [fear of missing out]. These AI attack ads are crazy desperate."

Why It Matters

Prediction markets still favor Bass, but the surge of viral AI content has introduced a volatile, largely untested dynamic into an already fluid race.

The contest has evolved into one of the most unpredictable mayoral races in recent Los Angeles history, combining weak incumbency support with a large undecided bloc. Crucially, the campaign is also emerging as an early test case for how artificial intelligence and viral social media content can shape modern U.S. elections.

What To Know

Prediction markets and polling broadly point to the same dynamic: Bass leads but lacks a commanding share, while Pratt has emerged as the clearest challenger, and Raman remains competitive.

On Polymarket, traders give Bass about a 54 percent chance of winning, compared with roughly 28 percent for Pratt and 13 percent for Raman.

What Happens Next

With fewer than three weeks until voting begins, the key question is no longer just who is ahead-but whether the next viral moment could be enough to change the trajectory of the race.

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This story was originally published May 13, 2026 at 9:05 AM.