Fresno, Valley likely to lose ‘drought’ label by April. Does that mean it’s really over?
An abundance of rain and snow in Fresno, the central San Joaquin Valley and the nearby Sierra Nevada range has the Central Valley poised to escape a drought designation by April.
The latest version of the U.S. Drought Monitor, released Thursday by the National Integrated Drought Information System, includes an outlook that indicates Fresno County and neighboring Kings, Madera, Merced and Tulare counties are likely to have the drought label removed over the next month.
But it may take months — if not longer — for a depleted underground water table on the Valley floor to recover from dry conditions that have persisted for three years, the analysis suggests.
As of Thursday, about 61% of Fresno County is still designated as “abnormally dry” in terms of drought intensity, but is considered drought-free in the Sierra Nevada foothills and mountains.
Since the 2022-23 water year began Oct. 1, through Tuesday, the National Weather Service in Hanford reports that almost 13 inches of rain has fallen at Fresno Yosemite International Airport. That figure has eclipsed annual October through September rainfall totals for the previous five water years:
- 6.73 inches in 2017-18.
- 11.85 inches in 2018-19.
- 7.63 inches in 2019-20.
- 6.59 inches in 2020-21.
- 6.4 inches in 2021-22.
The 12.82 inches since October also represents Fresno’s third-highest figure for the first five months of the modern water year dating to 1900-01. Even if no more rain were to fall between now and September, it would rank as the 23rd-wettest year since 1900-01.
The average total rainfall from March through September over the 122 years is 3.35 inches. If the rest of this water year follows that historical average, Fresno could end up with just over 16 inches of rain by the end of September — enough to be the 12th-wettest water year since 1900-1901.
But that’s far from a sure thing. For as wet as December, January and February have been, none matched high-water marks for each month in data going back to 1900. And with seven months left before this water year comes to a close, the potential remains for the weather water tap to dry out once again and steer the region back toward a drier pattern, if not a return to drought conditions.
What the weather has done
“Much of the western (continental) US has suffered from episodes of drought since 1999,” the drought monitor report stated. “The most recent drought episode has lasted up to three years. The lack of precipitation was accompanied by excessive heat, which increased (evaporation from soil and plants) and further dried soils.”
The prolonged drought also reduced the levels of many reservoirs, and a shortage of water from reservoirs forced additional pumping of groundwater, depleting underground water tables.
“The Pacific weather systems of this week and last week added to copious precipitation that has been received from atmospheric rivers since December 2022, especially over California and states to the east,” the drought report stated.
The abundant rain and snow have helped replenish most California lakes and reservoirs to near-average or above. As a result, “central California’s Sierra Nevada mountains and foothills are now free of drought and abnormal dryness for the first time since January 2020,” the report states.
However, “groundwater levels remain low and may take months to recover,” the report added.
Heavy mountain snowpack
Relief from drought means more than just rainfall on the Valley floor, as agriculture and other users rely on snow in the mountains as a form of cold storage for water until it melts and flows into rivers and streams.
According to the Department of Water Resources, 49 stations in the Central Sierra Nevada are reporting at 197% of normal on Thursday. Peak snow season is generally on April 1. As of Thursday, the snowpack throughout California is 174% of the average. UC Berkeley Central Sierra Snow Lab recorded nearly 12 feet of snow in one week.
Mountain communities on the east side of the Valley have been slammed by repeated winter storms that have dumped feet of snow, creating road closures and hazardous driving conditions and, in some instances, forcing residents to hunker down in their homes without power or a way to replenish supplies.
In Yosemite National Park, some areas of the park are buried under as much as 15 feet of snow from recent storms. On Wednesday, Gov. Gavin Newsom issued a proclamation declaring a state of emergency for 13 California counties, including Madera, Mariposa and Tulare, because of severe winter storms.
Fresno County hopes to be added to that list, declaring a local emergency Thursday because of the effects of storms and snow on mountain communities.
The Sacramento Bee contributed to this report.
