Ofelia Preciado doesn’t want to live in Fresno during her freshman year at UC Davis this fall, but she said she might not have a better choice.

She worked hard to get into the prominent college outside Sacramento, and the idea of taking all her classes online from her home in Fresno is a little depressing, she said.

“I would be really bummed out because college is something I always wanted to do.”

The 18-year-old Roosevelt High student is just one of the millions of young people across the nation struggling to plan for the first few months after high school while universities and colleges scramble to reinvent education amid the coronavirus pandemic.

Universities have grappled with indecisiveness about how to conduct fall classes.

In an email to students this week, Fresno State President Joseph I. Castro said the university would announce its fall plans on May 22. He said the administration is looking at several possibilities, but acknowledged it’s unlikely campus life will return to normal.

Many California community colleges already have said fall classes will mostly be conducted online. Fresno-area community colleges have yet to announce fall plans.

Each community college will decide how many classes they can maintain online, according to State Center Community College District Chancellor Paul Parnell.

“We’ll make the decision fairly soon, probably after the end of May, on what we’re going to do for the fall.”

Returning to normal? Not likely

Planning around the pandemic months in advance is challenging, especially for schools and colleges with thousands of students and staffers clustered together.

For schools that resume typical classroom instruction, regular temperatures checks, and staggered sessions to reduce class size may become the new normal.

Castro said Fresno State is looking at a variety of options, but said he’s most seriously considering two different scenarios.

“One would be continuing our virtual education and services through the fall semester,” Castro said in an email to students, “and the other would be some kind of a hybrid where some of our instruction would be done virtually, and some of it would be done in person.”

Castro said an 18-person task force will examine the benefits of each scenario and will also consider how football and other athletic programs can resume while adhering to guidelines from the chancellor’s office, public health officials, the NCAA and Mountain West Conference.

Don Lopez, Fresno City College’s vice president of instruction, echoed Castro’s assessment.

Lopez said while students and teachers want to return to normal, it’s more realistic to assume that most classes will remain online with few exceptions.

“There are some courses that we just cannot do online,” he said. “You can’t weld online, right?”

In some cases, students would take part of the class online and then come to campus for the hands-on component. Instructors may split the course by days, so there are fewer people in a classroom.

“So 10 (students) will come on Monday, and then 10 come on Wednesday and 10 come on Friday,” he said, “so that we’re maintaining social distancing.”

Changing plans?

Just as colleges have been indecisive, students may not want to commit to a college until they know what their lives will look like a few months from now.

Brianna Torres, an 18-year-old Sanger High student, has been planning to attend Fresno City College’s nursing program in the fall. But, with schools closed, she’s been unable to complete some in-person prerequisites to qualify.

Once shelter-in-place restrictions are relaxed, she might be able to complete the hours needed over the summer. But there are no guarantees those orders will be lifted in the coming months.

“I’m not sure how that’s going to go right now because I need my hours to get my license, and I was doing my hours at the high school,” Torres said.

She said she doesn’t know what she’ll do if she can’t start the program in the fall.

And she’s not alone.

The uncertainty surrounding the pandemic has forced many like Torres to consider changing plans. When classes abruptly moved online in March amid the outbreak, about 1,000 Fresno City College students dropped out.

Lopez called it a significant drop for the middle of a semester.

“We closed the campus down, and a lot of students who had to go online were not ready,” he said.

But he remains optimistic because he only saw a slight decline in enrollment in mid-semester courses that began about two weeks after the closing.

“To get roughly the same number of students and units enrolled that I see just about every year ... it’s pretty steady.”

But will the same hold true for the fall, when first-year and transfer students usually provide a bump in enrollment? Higher education institutions across the state are dealing with coronavirus-related financial losses that could be exacerbated by declining enrollment revenue and state funding.

State Center Community College District is already projecting significant cuts, even with federal funding assistance.

Enrollment on the rise?

Students have chimed in all over the nation — they don’t want to take online courses.

More than 70% of students say online learning is worse than face-to-face instruction, according to a national survey conducted in April by Simpson Scarborough. About 14% of current students say they will not return to their 4-year institution if fall 2020 is online, the survey found.

About 10% of high school seniors who were planning on attending a 4-year institution have now made other plans.

Those plans could be taking a gap year, choosing a college closer to home, or attending a community college.

Despite survey findings that four-year colleges in the U.S. could lose 20% of their usual students, not all schools are facing declining enrollment, especially California State Universities.

Castro said, compared to this time last year, applications are up.

Fresno State is an impacted campus, meaning there are usually more qualified applicants than there are spaces.

Following in the lead of several other CSUs, Fresno State has pushed back the date to accept admission from May 1 to June 1 in hopes of keeping students.

“All indications are that the lion’s share of you are going to continue on this fall,” Castro said last month in a message to students.

“I believe that the reason why our enrollment numbers are remaining strong, is that many people want to stay close to home and their families,” he said, “and we’re going to continue to support that and every way that we can.”

Unemployed enrolling in college

Traditionally, when unemployment rates rise, community college enrollment also gets a boost. That’s when people choose to switch careers or gain additional certifications.

Since mid-March, more than 30 million Americans have filed for unemployment benefits, a record number, according to the U.S. Labor Department. Community colleges are counting on enrollment rising and are requesting more funding to meet the need.

The California Community College system in April submitted a letter to legislators outlining their needs, from more staff support to better online learning infrastructure.

Fresno City, which has seen a continued increase in enrollment for the past several years, could see even more interest in technical programs like nursing, automotive, construction, and public safety.

That would be good news in any other circumstance, but technical programs are not well-suited for the distance instruction the pandemic requires.

That’s what worries Lopez and other school officials who are hoping the virus begins to decline over the summer, and by fall, students can return to campus in some fashion.

Planning for uncertainty

Late spring is usually the time when advisers head out to local high schools to contact prospective students.

Although counselors are still working via video conferencing, said Emilee Slater, director of college relations and outreach at Fresno City, “it’s going to be hard on some of our students, knowing the right questions to ask and how to navigate these college systems.”

She believes community colleges can offer students the kind of flexibility they need at this time, such as affordable tuition and the ability to transfer to a 4-year college.

“A lot of students are already saying, ‘No, why would I pay for this four-year school that’s offering the same kind of online learning that Fresno City offers, and a lot of their classes are free?’”

First-time students who want to attend full time could have their fees waived for two years by the California College Promise grant.

Despite the growing weariness that students feel about online events, Slater isn’t too worried about it driving prospective students away.

“It’s just a question of how we’re going to be able to capture the excitement and make them feel really welcome, while at the same time giving them the information that they need.”

The Education Lab is a local journalism initiative that highlights education issues critical to the advancement of the San Joaquin Valley. It is funded by donors. Learn about The Bee’s Education Lab on our website.