‘We are ground zero.’ Fresno County faces tough decisions on ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ cuts
The Fresno County budget is shaping up to have a manageable $15 million deficit to close this year, but the top administrator says next year’s outlook is much gloomier and could be a hit to public safety if nothing changes.
Chief Administrative Officer Paul Nerland said the county may be in for difficult decisions next year and could face a $40 million to $240 million shortfall next year under the Trump Administration’s “Big Beautiful Bill.”
“We really are ground zero for the impact of this, just because of the number of people we have on public assistance in this county,” Nerland told The Bee. “We’re going to do everything we can to mitigate it. Is it still going to affect us in a big way? Absolutely.”
The bill also called H.R.1 approved last summer by Congress included about $1 trillion in cuts to the federal Medicaid program, which provides money for low-income public health insurance programs in each state, including Medi-Cal in California.
About half, or 520,000, of Fresno County residents are enrolled in Medi-Cal, according to county staffers. Of those, about 153,000 have work requirements.
Medi-Cal has subsidized the premiums for those folks, but the H.R.1 cuts mean fewer dollars for that subsidy. So the unfunded mandate falls onto the counties, Nerland noted.
“There’s no coverage for that,” he said. “So we have to find other places to cut to pay for those unfunded mandates.”
When adopting the budget June 30, the state included another $20 million for Fresno County. That money can be used to pay for the increased workforce the county will need to check eligibility for residents looking for public assistance, which are new more restrictive requirements under H.R.1.
The county will begin to have its clearest picture of what the H.R.1 cuts mean midway through the fiscal year, around late January.
Staffers estimate between 11,000 and 30,000 people in Fresno County will fall off of the Medi-Cal subsidy because they no longer fit the new requirements under the Big Beautiful Bill.
Paying for their health care would fall on the county.
Fresno County has a discretionary fund of about $400 million in its $5.3 billion pocketbook. But realistically, according to Nerland, if next year’s budget picture does not improve, the county will see cuts to public safety.
Until then, the county has put a 5% cut mandate across most departments, he said. The Board of Supervisors has also placed a 12% transient-occupancy tax on the November ballot that, if approved, is estimated to add $4.55 million to the county’s challenged coffers.
“You’re going to see a lot more positions vacant while we try to maintain savings to go forward. But after this, we’ll have pulled most of those levers, and we’re going to be to the point where we’re going to have to cut services,” Nerland said. “That’s the only next step we have.”
