Will Shakira’s Fresno stadium debut be a success? 5 things that must happen

Even without being entrenched in Fresno’s entertainment landscape, it’s easy to see how Shakira’s Aug. 7 performance at Valley Children’s Stadium could be the concert of the year. 

It’s with rarefied exception that Fresno lands a mega star of this caliber. Audra McDonald playing Warnors Theatre in 2023 comes to recent mind. Shakira could be looking at 10 times that draw. 

The Colombian pop singer is on the final leg of U.S. concerts for her Las Mujeres Ya No Lloran tour before heading into a long run through Mexico. These are large-scale performances at major venues like Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas and SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles, where she plays a two-night run with the Black Eyed Peas opening. 

This is Shakira’s first time playing Fresno and the concert has the potential to set an attendance record as the city’s biggest single-night draw, according to the music trade publication Pollstar.

A successful night would prove to promoters that Fresno is a viable market with the capacity (and a venue) to handle these kinds of large-scale stadium productions. Theoretically, that could have a cascading effect of bringing more of them to town.

That would play well for Fresno State and its athletics department, which is looking for ways to grow and diversity revenue as it moves into the larger-profile Pac-12 Conference. A successful concert (or a season of concerts) would show potential sponsors (and city and county officials) the benefit of having a multi-purpose stadium — one that could be used for more than seven weekend football games each fall. 

Shakira could be a proof of that concept at a time when the university is looking to public-private partnerships as a way to fund a new, upgraded stadium facility. 

So, yes, there’s plenty riding on the success of the singer’s Fresno debut. Here’s what needs to go right. 

A break from the summer heat

When the concert was announced last month, the naysayers were quick to point out the obvious: It’s going to be hot. To quote one Facebook commenter: “August 7. Outside. Fresno. No thanks.”

But how hot it will be? And will that distract concert goers from buying tickets? 

According to the National Weather Service’s forecast discussion on Monday, the eight to 14-day outlook “shows up to a 40 percent chance for above average temperatures.” The average high for Aug. 7 in Fresno is 98 degrees, according to weather service data. 

That would put us into at least the low triple digits, though an outlier seems unlikely. The record high for the date was 112 back in 1908.

It is worth nothing that the concert has a listed start time of 7:30 p.m., which would put Shakira on stage 20 minutes before sundown. The website SetlistFm has Shakira starting her most recent concerts closer to 9 p.m. Unless the city is in the midst of a full-on heat wave, things should cool down after sunset and fans should miss the full heat of the day altogether.

Easy access to stadium, parking

Nothing can disrupt a concert-going experience quicker or more thoroughly than sitting in snarled traffic, waiting to get into a parking lot. See: recent Luke Bryan concerts in Atwater and at Harlan Ranch in Clovis. 

Fresno State has experience moving mass crowds in and out of events; both at the Save Mart Center, which, at capacity, can see tens of thousands of fans, and at the stadium, where the university averaged slightly more than 40,000 people at football games last season. 

Even with a shortened timeline (parking lots open for Shakira at 6 p.m. and pre-concert tailgating is prohibited), one would expect the university to get people into and out of the stadium smoothly.

Parking will be available at several lots across campus, according to a map provide by the university.

Almost 2,000 spaces will be split between two lots near the stadium (to the east off Cedar Avenue and to the west off Millbrook Avenue). These spots will be pre-sale only and are expected to sell out, the university said. Parking passes go on sale Aug. 30. 

The remaining lots will be available starting at 6 p.m., both through pre-sale and on the day of the event. Uber and Lyft will be available from a lot off of Woodrow Avenue neat the Save Mart Center with shuttle service running at the same pick-up locations as on football gamedays for the trip across campus, Fresno State said.

‘An utter spectacle’

A lackluster performance or, worse, one that gets canceled at the last minute could derail any plans the university has for the stadium. 

The announcement of the Fresno date coincided with a series of production issues that forced Shakira to cancel or postpone several concert dates and left fans wondering if she would cancel others. The San Diego Union Tribute said the chances of her playing Snapdragon Stadium last month were “dicey, given the harrowing series of stage malfunctions and unstable venues” she’d had to that point. 

She ended up performing in front of a sold-out crowd of more than 20,000. 

The stage production, created over a year by a team that’s worked on the Grammy Awards, the Eurovision Song Contest and the VMAs, “was an utter spectacle, with beaming laser light shows and a douse of pyrotechnics,” according to a review in the Union Tribune. The setlist ran 25 songs with a total runtime of about two hours and 5 minutes. There were more than a dozen costume changes, according to the story.

That seems to track.

Ryan Borba, a Fresno native and managing editor of the industry trade publication Pollstar, said these stadium shows are designed as communal experience and fans can expect an experience unlike anything they’ve seen in Fresno.

Good economic impacts

Fresno State’s athletics director Garett Klassy worked at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln in 2012 when Garth Brooks played its Memorial Stadium. It was the first concert the stadium had hosted since 1987 and sold some 90,000 tickets. The estimated economic impact was in excess of $10 million, Klassy said. 

While the scale is somewhat different for the Shakira show, the university will be paying close attention to the economic impacts around the city. A good night could go a long way in shaping a narrative around the benefit of a multi-use stadium.

“For every tourism dollar, in California, roughly 30 cents on the dollar goes to hotels,” says Pete Hillan, with the California Hotel and Lodging Association. The rest ends up in other local business such as bars, restaurants and the like.

“But the remaining 70 cents typically doesn’t happen if that 30 cents doesn’t happen.” 

A major event of this sort means the potential for new customers coming to area hotels, Hillan says.

“It’s a wonderful opportunity for hotels to showcase themselves and help add to a good experience,” he says. “Anytime guests have a good experience, it increases the likelihood that they will return.” 

So, area hotels will likely be “rolling out the red carpet” for concert goers. 

“It’s all about making sure that folks really have a good sort of seamless adventure over this weekend.”

Other local businesses aren’t expecting much from the concert. 

DiCicco’s Old Town Clovis is anticipating some increase in business on the day of the concert and maybe in the days leading up, if the hotels get really busy. J. J. Wettstead, owner at Max’s Bistro and Bar on Bullard and West Avenues, predicts the effect on his business will be “semi-negligible.” 

How many people need to show up?

In the end, the success of the concert will depend on how many people show up. 

While it’s not exactly clear what the university or promoters would considered a success in terms of tickets sales, we can look at some historical data to get a sense of things. 

• Last year, rock band Blink-182 and Mexican singer Peso Pluma and had the top spots for ticket sales at the Save Mart Center: 14,381 and 14,333 tickets sold, according to Pollstar data.

• Carol G, a fellow Colombian pop singer sold nearly 12,000 tickets for her Strip Love tour in 2022. 

• Madonna sold a combined 20,154 tickets for two shows at the Save Mart Center in 2006, according to numbers from Pollstar.
• Garth Brooks did 51,743 over four shows at the arena in 2016.
• Regional Mexican band Marca MP, with Peso Pluma as an opener, sold 21,097 at Chukchansi Park in 2023. It was a record for the stadium, according to The Fresno Grizzlies.

This is the first time Valley Children’s stadium has hosted a concert, and the first major non-sporting event since Billy Graham’s Central Valley Crusade in 2001. That was a four-night event that drew 50,000 per night, well beyond the stadium’s 41,000-plus capacity for football games. 

Fresno State has said the capacity for the Shakira show will be less than what it would be for a football game, even with seats on the field. Shakira has hit those kind of numbers in markets like Orlando and Charlotte — and Spanish-language acts have had the largest, most consistent crowds in the Fresno region in recent years, according to Pollstar.

The lead-up to the concert has had some detours. Even before Live Nation officially announced the date at Valley Children’s Stadium had been added, a flier leaked out via social media. That information wouldn’t be confirmed for several days and fans were left to question whether it was a fake or a flub from someone who wasn’t supposed to share. And Fresno State’s own Collegian newspaper wondered if the university has done enough to properly promote the concert; suggesting the Red Wave is being called upon to fill seats without any incentives like discounts for students. 

A look at Ticketmaster.com on Monday shows seats are available in all sections of the stadium.

Prices range from $87, for seats near the stadium scoreboard, to $500-plus, which will put you several rows from the stage. VIP packages, including a meet and greet with the singer, can cost nearly $4,000, through the Ticketmaster site.