Mass deportations could cost the San Joaquin Valley more than $19B, study finds
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- Mass deportations could slash San Joaquin Valley GDP by $19.2 billion annually
- Agriculture and construction sectors face significant labor and revenue losses
- Local businesses report declining foot traffic amid immigration enforcement fears
Mass deportations of undocumented immigrants could cost California’s San Joaquin Valley roughly 10% of the region’s total gross domestic product, or about $19.2 billion, according to a new study.
The data comes from a collaborative study by UC Merced and the Bay Area Council Economic Institute exploring the potential economic impact of mass deportation in California, which risks losing $275 billion in GDP without undocumented workers. The research is based on federal data, economic modeling, and nearly 40 interviews with business leaders, elected officials, and community advocates from across the state.
Maria-Elena Young, an assistant professor of public health at UC Merced who led the study, said the Central Valley has a particularly high share of immigrants — about one in five residents. Of those immigrants, roughly one in four is undocumented, making the region especially vulnerable to the effects of immigration enforcement.
Young said the agriculture industry would be hit the hardest, as undocumented workers make up roughly a quarter of the area’s agricultural workforce.
“It’s an industry that truly relies on immigrant labor to thrive, so in this region, increased enforcement actions at work sites would likely hurt agricultural workplaces,” she said. “Even enforcement at other types of workplaces can have ripple effects throughout the community and ultimately impact the agriculture industry.”
Construction in the Central Valley, which is also heavily reliant on immigrant labor, could face big disruptions, as well.
“Because there’s construction demand throughout the state, enforcement actions in Southern California that disrupt the local labor force could draw skilled workers from the Central Valley to Los Angeles, where jobs may offer higher wages,” Young said.
The Central Valley could also face big losses in tax revenue. Undocumented immigrants contribute an average of $7,000 in taxes annually, according to the study, and they make up more than 20% of the region’s immigrant population.
“Immigrants are key consumers and small business owners in small towns all throughout the Central Valley, so if we see people avoiding going out to have dinner or avoiding going out to buy things, that could really have a huge economic impact on struggling downtown areas,” Young said.
Rosalba Flores, a program director at the Fresno Area Hispanic Foundation in downtown Fresno, says the area is already feeling the impact of widespread fear following reports of immigration enforcement activity across the country.
“I see a lot of places that are empty that used to have a lot of people coming in to eat and spend their money. Those people aren’t downtown right now. It’s a pretty low season for Hispanic businesses in particular. The current news cycle is making a difference,” Flores said.
Flores particularly noticed the change at the supermarket ‘El Super’ on Tulare Avenue and First Street.
“Usually I get off work and I go there to get tortillas, they’re usually packed, but the last couple of times I’ve been, they’re empty. Completely empty. I can grab the tortillas and be out in five minutes,” Flores said.
She worries about the long term economic impact to the region.
“I think in the long run if people aren’t consuming as many goods and services, that could affect anyone’s job status, not just undocumented immigrants. If there’s not as much money coming, there’s not as much to pay payroll,” Flores said.
This story was originally published July 1, 2025 at 5:00 AM.
