Has homeless population in Fresno, Central Valley hit an all-time high? It’s coming close
In much the same way that the economy ebbs and flows, the homeless population in Fresno and the central San Joaquin Valley also rises and falls with the times.
A review of homelessness data over the past 14 years reveals that in 2023, for example, homelessness in Fresno and Madera counties was at its second highest level, behind only 2011 when the region was in the waning throes of the Great Recession.
The Fresno/Madera Continuum of Care organization reported 4,493 homeless individuals, including 2,758 who were unsheltered and living on the streets, in its annual 2023 Point-in-Time survey. The previous peak was 5,135, including 1,313 in shelters, in 2011.
Across the rest of the Valley, from Stanislaus County in the north to Kings and Tulare counties in the south, the patterns are similar. While no Point-in-Time count was conducted in Fresno and Madera counties in 2024, the surveys done earlier this year by Continuum of Care organizations in Stanislaus, Merced and Tulare/Kings counties showed that homelessness is also higher than at any point since 2007 and 2008, in the lead-up to the Great Recession.
More than 4,560 people were counted among the homeless, sheltered and unsheltered, in those counties in 2024, compared to more than 5,300 in 2007 and almost 5,100 in 2008.
In a region that already has higher levels of poverty and unemployment than most of the rest of California, the economy of Fresno and the Valley is but one factor behind how or why people become homeless.
“Households living below the poverty level are at risk of becoming homeless,” according to the Merced County PIT report. “Because of their limited income, they frequently have to choose between paying their rent, mortgage, and other daily living costs, such as child care, food, clothing, healthcare, and transportation.”
According to the U.S. Department of Housing & Urban Development, the standard for housing affordability is that households should not spend more than 30% of their incomes on rent and utilities — regardless of whether that income level is high or low.
“Many households can become homeless because of challenges, such as increases in rent, job loss, and rising healthcare costs,” the report stated. “In addition, personal experiences such as domestic violence, physical disability, mental illness, and substance abuse are also contributing factors to homelessness. Often, one or more of these experiences play a role in a household’s experience of homelessness.”
When the Valley’s economy is good, homelessness can be expected to trend lower, and vice versa, notwithstanding other factors including mental illness or substance abuse.
In the 2023 PIT report by the Fresno/Madera Counties Continuum of Care, “many homeless adults reported experiencing a disability, including 36% who reported a substance abuse disorder and 33% who reported a mental health problem.”
The data from the Point-in-Time reports seem to reflect that. The homeless population dipped to its lowest level over the past 17 years in 2015 in Fresno and Madera counties, and in 2013 across the rest of the Valley. Since those years, the number of people living on the streets has generally been on the rise, with significant increases that align with the arrival of COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.
Not coincidentally, the numbers in shelters also climbed as California provided grants to cities and counties through efforts, such as Project Roomkey and Project Homekey, to increase the availability of shelter beds throughout the region.
In Fresno and Madera counties, for instance, the population of homeless in shelters nearly doubled in a single year — from 999 in 2021 to 1,878 in 2022. Valleywide, the sheltered homeless population grew from 1,600 in 2021 to 1,810 in 2022 and to 1,917 in 2023.
An ongoing shortage of affordable housing, in which rents are climbing higher while median household incomes remain stagnant, are also contributing to the hardships. A recent analysis by ApartmentList.com notes that, nationwide, the number of renter households considered “rent-burdened” and paying more than 30% of their income on rent reached an all-time high in 2023. Across the U.S., an estimated 52% of renting households are cost-burdened. That’s about 22 million households.
“Since 2019, rents have grown faster than renter incomes in 82 of the nation’s 100 largest metros,” the report states.
The ApartmentList analysis also concluded that while Fresno and the surrounding region tend to have more affordable housing costs than other California rental markets, Fresno County ranked seventh among the 100 largest metropolitan areas of the nation for having the highest renter cost-burden rate at just over 60% — eight percentage points higher than the U.S.
An estimated 25% of Fresno-area households are paying between 30% and 50% of their incomes on rent and considered “moderately” burdened, and another 35% are “severely” burdened by paying more than half of their income for rent.
The ApartmentList report, based on 2023 U.S. Census Bureau data, also notes that the rent-burdened figures for other Valley counties are:
- 49.8% in the Modesto/Stanislaus County metropolitan area.
- 59.2% in the Merced/Merced County metropolitan area.
- 53.8% in the Hanford/Corcoran/Kings County metropolitan area.
- 52.5% in the Visalia/Tulare County metropolitan area.
“With more than half of renters (nationwide) spending an unhealthy share of their income on rent, it is clear that significant work must be done to alleviate a housing affordability crisis that has now extended to virtually every part of the country,” wrote Chris Salviati, a senior housing economist and author of the ApartmentList report.
This story was originally published December 18, 2024 at 5:30 AM.
