Fresno among U.S. leaders for apartment rent increases in the pandemic. Here’s the data
The Fresno metro area has experienced one of the highest increases in fair-market rent rates for apartments among large U.S. metro markets since before the COVID-19 pandemic.
That’s the conclusion of a new construction industry report based on data from the federal Department of Housing & Urban Development analyzing trends in rents for apartments of various sizes. The analysis by Construction Coverage reports that among the 56 largest U.S. metro areas, Fresno ranked 11th for having the highest average increase in rents — about 33%, compared to a nationwide increase of just over 24% from 2018-19 through now.
“The latest data from the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) shows that fair market rents — estimates of the monthly dollar amount that a rental property is likely to command in a particular location — increased by an average of 24% from 2019 to 2023,” the report states.
“Smaller rental units increased by the largest amount, with studios rising by more than 30% and one-bedrooms rising by approximately 26% (nationwide),” analysts added. “Renters looking for smaller, lower-priced options have been disproportionately hurt by increasing rents.”
“Rents are rising due to a combination of limited supply and increased demand. On the supply side, the U.S. has underinvested in housing for the last decade, and pandemic-related worker shortages and supply chain disruptions only made the problem worse,” Construction Coverage researchers said. “On the demand side, after the early days of the pandemic in which many people moved into temporary living situations (such as moving back in with parents), they then sought to move into their own spaces independently.”
And as real estate prices climbed in 2020 and 2021, many would-be homebuyers who were priced out of the housing market had to continue to rent, putting additional demand on the supply of rental housing.
Each fiscal year, HUD estimates fair-market rents in counties across the country to determine payments to landlords for subsidized low-income rental programs and other purpose. The estimates include figures for each category of apartment from studios through four-bedroom units at the 40th percentile – the price at which 40% of rents are lower and 60% are higher.
For Fresno County, that fair-market figure climbed the fastest for studio apartments, the smallest of the categories, between the 2018-19 fiscal year and the 2022-23 federal fiscal year that began Oct. 1, but also rose substantially for other sized units as well:
- Studio or efficiency apartments: $668 per month in 2018-19, compared to $991 in 2022-23, an increase of 48.4%.
- One-bedroom apartments: $769 per month in 2018-19, compared to $997 in 2022-23, up 29.6%.
- Two-bedroom apartments: $956 per month in 2018-19, compared to $1,258 in 2022-23, up 31.6%.
- Three-bedroom apartments: $1,364 per month in 2018-19, compared to $1,772 in 2022-23.
- Four-bedroom apartments: $1,584 per month in 2018-19, compared to $2,029 in 2022-23.
Among smaller Valley markets in the analysis, Merced’s HUD estimate is up by 46.8% over the same time period, ranking it second among small U.S. metro areas. Visalia, which is categorized as a mid-sized market, came in with an increase of 20.2%.
The largest percentage increase in the HUD fair market rent estimates for big metro markets between 2018-19 and 2022-23 was in the Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler market in Arizona, at 62.5%.
Month-to-month in Fresno
Over the past few months, however, rents for apartments in the Fresno area have been on the decline, and November saw only a slight increase in the median rent compared to October, according to a recent analysis by ApartmentList.com, a San Francisco-based rental listing and data company.
The median rent for a market-rate apartment in Fresno in November was estimated at $1,318 per month, ApartmentList analysts reported. That’s up $2 from October’s estimated median of $1,316. Rents on new apartment leases in Fresno peaked in June at a record $1,399 per month but declined in each month after that until November’s slight increase.
So far in 2022, rents in Fresno have climbed about 1.8% — a marked difference from the growth spurt seen in the first 11 months of 2021 when rents rose by almost 16%.
Among the 10 largest California cities included in the ApartmentList data for November, Fresno has the lowest median rent — the point at which half of apartments cost more and half cost less:
- San Jose: $2,425 per month.
- San Diego: $2,384 per month.
- San Francisco: $2,238 per month.
- Anaheim: $2,215 per month.
- Santa Ana: $2,164 per month.
- Los Angeles: $1,891 per month.
- Long Beach: $1,687 per month.
- Sacramento: $1,646 per month.
- Oakland: $1,642 per month.
- Fresno: $1,318 per month.
Nationwide, Fresno ranks 64th among the 100 largest cities in the country, and the national average was $1,356.
The rent data comes with an important caveat: Leases for individual apartment units can vary widely — not only between different areas of a community, but from one apartment complex to another and even from unit to unit within the same complex.
ApartmentList data and analysis methodology does not include public or subsidized affordable housing for low-income renters.
