Delta variant cases ‘definitely rising’ in Fresno. How quickly can it spread?
At least 30 people in Fresno County, and at least 70 across the central San Joaquin Valley, have been confirmed in recent weeks to be infected with the Delta variant of coronavirus.
In a region that’s seen almost 200,000 cases of COVID-19 across Fresno, Kings, Madera and Tulare counties since March 2020 – including almost 3,100 deaths from the virus – it’s a relative drop in the bucket.
Still, health professionals are worried about the Delta, or B.1.617.2, variant of the virus because across the country and around the world, the number of cases is rising dramatically, and the Valley appears poised to follow suit.
As of Thursday, for example, Fresno County had 22 confirmed cases of the Delta variant. That’s more than triple the seven cases reported just two weeks ago. On Friday, that number was increased to 30 – an increase of eight cases in a single day as reports come in from the state Department of Public Health.
Likewise, Tulare County reports that its Delta cases have tripled over the past two weeks, from eight on July 2 to 24 by Thursday.
Dr. Rais Vohra, interim health officer for the Fresno County Department of Public Health, said recently that within a matter of weeks or a few months, he expects “that this variant or another one like it is going to dominate all of the tests that we are doing” in Fresno County.
The small number of cases “may not seem like a lot, but it’s definitely rising,” Vohra told reporters last week. “And these cases are from reports that are a couple of weeks in the making because our genetic testing for these variants is lagging behind at the state level.”
The actual number, he added, “is probably in the 100 or 200 range for Fresno County because we know we’re two or three weeks behind in terms of counting these variants.”
More contagious, more severe
At the global, national, state and local levels, health authorities are warning that the Delta variant, which was first identified last winter in India, is proving to be much more contagious than previous versions of COVID-19 that have arisen since the worldwide pandemic began more than a year and a half ago.
In late April, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control reported that the Delta strain represented almost less than 1% of all new coronavirus cases in the country. In just over two months, by early July, Delta’s proportion of new cases had ballooned to almost 58%.
“The Delta variant is the dominant variant for COVID (across the country and around the world) because it tends to be more contagious, it tends to multiply faster, and it tends to be more severe in its outcomes in what it does to people,” Vohra said.
That faster rate of spread from person to person is particularly alarming to Vohra and other Valley health officers because vaccination rates against COVID-19 have stubbornly remained lower than California as a whole. Statewide, almost 50% of the overall population has been fully vaccinated – meaning they’ve received two shots of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines or one dose of the single-shot Johnson & Johnson product.
By contrast, of California’s 58 counties, none of the Valley counties has a fully-vaccinated rate above 40%. Fresno leads the region with a rate of 39.5%. Neighboring Kings County has the second-lowest rate in the state, at 27.4%.
Cases, hospitalizations rising
The increase in cases of the Delta variant in Fresno County comes at the time time when not only are more people testing positive for coronavirus infections, but more people are getting sick enough to be hospitalized for COVID-19 – a turnaround in recent days. As of July 14, 68 people were being treated in hospitals in Fresno county for either confirmed or suspected coronavirus cases.
While that’s far fewer than when hospitalizations peaked in January, it’s the largest number almost two months. And virtually all of those in recent months, Vohra said, have been unvaccinated.
From July 9 through July 15, Fresno County reported 327 new COVID-19 cases – the highest number for any seven-day span in two months.
The increase in cases prompted the county Thursday to update its recommendation for wearing face coverings indoors. Unchanged is the requirement for people who are not fully vaccinated to wear a face covering when indoors to prevent the spread of coronavirus.
For people who are vaccinated, Fresno County now says masks are “strongly recommended” when indoors, but not required. That’s a change from the county’s previous language which indicated that vaccinated persons “may go unmasked in most settings” except for required masks on public transportation, hospitals and shelters, in alignment with Centers for Disease Control guidelines.
“Smart people will start wearing masks when they leave their house,” Vohra said Friday, declaring that masks provide an extra layer of protection against COVID-19 and the Delta variant even for people who are vaccinated. He described the Delta variant as “a very sneaky foe” that is opportunistic in its ability to spread from person to person.
Unvaccinated are ‘sitting ducks’
“The facts are becoming more and more clear that we are basically selecting ourselves into two different risk pools – those of us who have had our vaccine, and those of us who are yet unvaccinated,” Vohra said. “And the folks who are unvaccinated are sitting ducks.”
The good news, he said, is that research indicates that all of the vaccines available in the U.S. are effective against the Delta variant.
“For those of us who are not yet vaccinated, you need to be aware that this is the one that’s going to get you in the hospital,” Vohra said. “I’m sure about that because that’s exactly what it’s doing around the country and around the world.”
“If you needed yet another reason to get your vaccine, this Delta variant gives you a lot of ample evidence that this is an important threat to the health of our community,” he added, “and getting your vaccine today is the best thing you can do to protect yourself against it.”
This story was originally published July 16, 2021 at 10:01 AM.
