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New COVID-19 cases inch up in Fresno County. Here’s what the trend looks like

The average number of new coronavirus cases reported each day in Fresno County has crept upward over the past 10 days – just as the county adjusts to a less restrictive tier of operations for restaurants and businesses.

The state Department of Public Health reported Thursday that Fresno County had 85 new confirmed novel coronavirus infections, putting the average number of new daily cases at 98 over the past week.

That’s a far cry from late August, when the average was just shy of 500 new cases per day. But two days after Fresno County was promoted to Tier 2, color-coded red for “substantial” risk of transmission under California’s Blueprint for a Safer Economy, even small increases hold potential for concern.

Almost 1,040 new infections have surfaced in Fresno County since Sept. 21. On that day, the seven-day average of new cases was 81.9 cases per day – the lowest average since mid-June, when the county saw an alarming two-month surge in cases, hospitalizations and deaths attributed to the novel coronavirus.

Over the past 10 days, that seven-day average has crept higher on every day but one, and stands at about 16 cases per day higher than on Sept. 21..

Since early summer, many Fresno County businesses have faced limitations on their operations, including restaurants being forbidden to offer indoor dining, gyms and fitness clubs restricted to only outdoor operations, and churches not allowed to hold services indoors. Those are the rules for counties in Tier 1 of the state’s blueprint, color-coded purple to represent widespread risk of transmitting the virus.

On Tuesday, Fresno County completed its second week meeting the threshold to enter red Tier 2, which allows restaurants to resume indoor service at 25% capacity, gyms and health clubs to reopen inside at 10% capacity, and 25% capacity for services at houses of worship.

To enter Tier 2, the county had to maintain an adjusted seven-day average of fewer than seven new cases per day per 100,000 residents and have less than 8% of people being tested for COVID-19 showing positive results for the infection over a weeklong period.

If a county backslides for one or both of those criteria above those thresholds for two consecutive weeks, it can be reassigned to the more restrictive purple Tier 1, reinstating the various limitations on businesses.

Around the Valley

Thursday’s COVID-19 updates from Fresno County and neighboring counties in the central San Joaquin Valley include:

Fresno County: 85 new cases on Thursday, 28,706 to date; no additional deaths, 390 to date; 18,428 people recovered. Fresno County only updates deaths and recoveries on Tuesdays and Fridays.

Madera County: 31 new cases on Thursday, 4,614 to date; no additional deaths, 68 to date; 4,101 people recovered.

Mariposa County: No new cases Thursday, 76 to date; no additional deaths, two to date; 73 people recovered.

Merced County: 26 new cases on Thursday, 9,019 to date; no additional deaths, 145 to date; recoveries not specified.

Tulare County: 55 new cases on Thursday, 16,267 to date; no additional deaths, 263 to date; 15,476 people recovered.

Kings County did not provide an update as of 4:15 p.m. Thursday. On Wednesday, the county reported a total of 7,682 cases to date, including 80 deaths. More than 5,700 people are recovered. Of cases in the county, 3,352 are among inmates incarcerated at state prisons in Avenal and Corcoran.

Of the six counties in the region, only two – Fresno and Mariposa counties – are outside purple Tier 1 of the state’s coronavirus blueprint. Fresno is in red Tier 2, while Mariposa is in Tier 4, color-coded yellow representing “minimal” risk of transmitting the virus.

Follow More of Our Reporting on Coronavirus in California

Tim Sheehan
The Fresno Bee
Lifelong Valley resident Tim Sheehan has worked as a reporter and editor in the region since 1986, and has been with The Fresno Bee since 1998. He is currently The Bee’s data reporter and also covers California’s high-speed rail project and other transportation issues. He grew up in Madera, has a journalism degree from Fresno State and a master’s degree in leadership studies from Fresno Pacific University. Support my work with a digital subscription
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