Fresno-area continues to see COVID-19 cases rise, but is the ‘curve’ starting to bend?
The number of confirmed coronavirus infections identified throughout the central San Joaquin Valley on Monday lurched up by more than 2,100 cases since Friday – an increase of almost 5.4% in a single weekend.
And the actual number is likely to be even higher, as reporting issues continue to plague the state’s CalREDIE (California Reportable Disease Information Exchange) system that compiles data from reporting labs on test results for COVID-19. The state acknowledges that the backlog is causing the case counts to be underreported.
Kings County, for example, has not provided an update on its estimated number of cases for more than a week, citing CalREDIE reporting delays.
In Fresno County, 815 new cases cropped up since Friday, according to data from the state which is posted by the county Department of Public Health on its website. Those test results boosted to 17,846 the number of residents who have tested positive for the virus since the first local case was identified in early March.
In just over five months, 171 Fresno County residents have succumbed to COVID-19; no additional deaths were reported over the weekend. The county’s next update of casualties is expected Tuesday afternoon.
The only new deaths reported by Valley counties since Friday were in Merced County, where six people died between Friday and Monday.
Are numbers stabilizing?
In Fresno County, two-week averages for the number of new cases and patients being treated in hospitals have fallen slightly after peaking last week
On July 30, Fresno County reported an average of almost 371 new cases every day over the previous 14 days. As of Monday, the average had shrunk to about 331 cases per day over the past 14 days.
Since reaching 313 confirmed coronavirus patients on July 30, the number of people hospitalized for treatment of the disease was 286 as of Sunday, including 53 seriously ill patients in intensive-care units at hospitals across the county.
The rolling 14-day average for hospitalized patients in the county has shrunk from 298 in the middle of last week to 294 on Sunday.
But Dr. Rais Vohra, Fresno County’s interim health officer, said he’s still very concerned about hospital capacity.
While hospital numbers “are stabilizing, I’m not really comfortable saying they’re trickling down,” Vohra said Monday. “Whenever you look at the number of positive patients, the number of suspected patients and the number of ICU beds, it’s sort of a flat line.”
Even with the meager downturn, “this is such a high caseload that they have to deal with in addition to all of the other medical conditions that they have to deal with,” he added.
Several Fresno County hospitals are asking for help from outside teams to bolster their staffing, Vohra said. A medical team from the U.S. Department of Defense was deployed in July to Community Regional Medical Center in downtown Fresno.
Staffing isn’t the only concern. “One of our hospitals has actually asked for ventilators” from the state,” he added. “They have enough ICU space, but they don’t have enough ventilators.”
“I’d be much more comfortable if the number actually went down,” Vohra said. “Only time will tell if we flatten the curve (of new infections) enough that we have to admit fewer people that need to be hospitalized.”
Around the Valley
Other updates from Valley counties on Monday included:
Kings County: The county has not provided an update on its case counts or deaths since Sunday evening, Aug. 2. At that time, Kings County reported 4,453 cases to date, including 1,662 at state prisons in Avenal and Corcoran, and 56 fatalities.
Madera County: 161 new cases since Friday, 2,463 to date; no additional deaths, 39 deaths to date; 1,772 people recovered.
Mariposa County: Two new cases since Friday, 62 to date; no additional deaths, two deaths to date; 57 people recovered.
Merced County: 744 new cases since Friday, 5,736 to date; six additional deaths, 70 deaths to date; 3,440 people recovered.
Tulare County: 387 new cases since Friday, 10,862 to date; no additional deaths, 196 deaths to date; 9,524 people recovered.
This story was originally published August 10, 2020 at 6:23 PM.
