Millennials wield the most voting potential in Fresno County. But will they use it?
Young adults between the ages of 26 and 35 – often broadly referred to as the “millennial” generation – are the largest single group of voters by age group in Fresno County.
That, and growing registration among voters 18 to 25, indicates that younger voters are poised to have considerable clout in next month’s primary election and in the November general election – should they decide to exercise it.
More than 95,000 of Fresno County’s registered voters are between the ages of 26 and 35, accounting for one out of every five people who are registered for the March 3 primary. When they are combined with the 18-to-25 age group, more than one out of every three potential voters in the county is 35 or younger. That’s only slightly less than the proportion those two age groups represent among the county’s overall population of voting-age residents.
“Millennials now make up the largest voting bloc in the country and that is true in Fresno County too,” said Lisa Bryant, a political science professor at California State University, Fresno. “In both 2016 and 2018, they turned out in the general elections at 42% and 50% respectively (and) I would expect 2020 to look very similar to 2018.”
Turnout will likely be lower in the primary, according to historical patterns. “But with Sanders (Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, an independent who is running for president as a Democrat) having strong support among (voters) under 30, his presence could drive younger voters to the polls” even in a primary, Bryant said.
“We know that people 18 to 25 or so, either they’re not that interested in politics because the issues don’t speak to them, or they’re busy being in school or starting careers or whatever,” Bryant said. “But then as people mature … they have more fully formed political opinions.”
“We still tend to think of ‘millennials’ as early 20s, but they’re not,” she added. “They’re getting into that 25-to-35 age bracket and starting to have more political investment. I think we’re going to see their numbers increase a little bit. I would expect maybe 45 or 50% turnout among millennials in this election.”
Numbers for other age brackets
Senior citizens ages 66 and older run a close second among age groups in voter registration, with only about 2,000 fewer voters than the millennia generations. When it comes to registration, however, those older voters are punching above their weight, to borrow a boxing phrase. Seniors represent only about 16.4% of the voting-age population, but they come in at about 19.5% of actual registration.
People in their pre-retirement years are represented in voter registration in proportions much lower than their share of the population. Those ages 56 to 65 make up more than 21 percent of Fresno County’s population, but are only about 15 percent of registered voters, according to data from the California Secretary of State.
The older voters are, however, more prone to get out and vote.
“I don’t know if maybe there’s some disenchantment with the political system among those people,” Bryant said. “I’m surprised that they are sandwiched by generations with higher voter registration numbers. But when it comes to turnout, among those people who are registered, turnout is right around 60% or so.”
Changes in voting
New changes in how Fresno County voters will cast ballots this year could also boost turnout for next month’s primary for all ages, not only among younger voters.
Five counties in California, including neighboring Madera County, served as test platforms for the state’s Voter’s Choice Act (VCA) in 2018. This year, Fresno is one of 10 additional counties that are deploying a system in which every registered voter receives a ballot by mail. Voters can return their ballot by mail, or drop it off at a secured drop box or at a “voting center” instead of heading to a designated polling place to vote in person.
“In all five of those counties, we saw increases in voter turnout,” Bryant said of the VCA counties in 2018. “Non-VCA turnout was also higher in 2018 … but VCA counties, where everyone gets a ballot in the mail, (turnout) was even higher.”
“For millennials, people who are still at work, or have young children at home, the convenience of being able to vote by mail and not have to go in person is definitely a factor that might help boost turnout among those demographics,” she added.”
This story was originally published February 18, 2020 at 1:56 PM.
