It’s shaping up to be a warm and dry November. When will it rain again in Fresno?

With dry weather persisting across the central San Joaquin Valley, the Fresno area is facing possibly the most delayed start ever to its wet season.

The fact that there hasn’t been any rain this month already has made this year the fourth latest start ever for Fresno’s rainy season, according to the National Weather Service in Hanford.

And if the dry weather lasts through the rest of November — as some forecasts suggest — 2019 would then have the second most delayed start to a wet season in Fresno.

The latest start to the wet season in Fresno occurred in 1995, when rain didn’t come until Dec. 11.

“Right now, we’ve been in a stagnant weather pattern with high pressure in the Pacific Ocean,” said Carlos Molina, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service. “Everything is going north into Canada and flowing down into the Midwest and East Coast. It’s given them an early winter.

“But for us in the Valley and on the West Coast, we’ve had nonstop dry conditions. Maybe there’s a chance it’ll rain closer to the end of the month. For now, it could be awhile.”

Of course, any delay in rain or signs of a lack of rain could draw panic over the possibility of a drought on the horizon.

It was just over two years ago when then-Gov. Jerry Brown finally declared California’s historic drought to be officially over in April 2017.

But research by the National Weather Service shows that a late start to the wet season isn’t automatically a warning sign that a drought is coming.

Sometimes, the lack of rain during November and parts of December are made up with heavy or consistent rain in January through March, Molina said.

Ryan Jacobsen, the Fresno County Farm Bureau CEO, said the lack of rain and abnormal weather pattern are always a concern.

“Precipitation over the winter months is what feeds the agriculture industry for the summer and the fall months,” Jacobsen said. “The bright side is 2019 was an exception year overall for rain. We’ll carry over good amounts of water into 2020.

“But we still want to see a close to normal water year to keep things strong into 2020.”

How has 2019 compared to last year?

During the first two weeks of November, Fresno has averaged a high of 77.9 degrees compared to 72.7 degrees a year ago during that same stretch of days.

There is a 10 percent chance of rain Friday through Sunday in Fresno, and even a 20 percent chance Wednesday, according to The Weather Channel. If it doesn’t happen then, rain is in the forecast at the end of the month, too.

But until it actually rains, Fresnans will continue to deal with dust and haze problems from the stagnant weather.

“Even though there have been dry conditions for several days, there are storms that have attempted to make it to the West Coast,” Molina said. “They’ve just broken down before reaching us. But usually, once one storm makes it through, others will follow.”

This story was originally published November 15, 2019 at 11:08 AM.