What we flush down the pipes tells Fresno doctors there’s likely a COVID surge coming
COVID-19 cases in Fresno and surrounding central San Joaquin Valley counties lurched higher this week, prompting concern about the potential for a new surge to rise up this winter as it did in 2020 and 2021.
More than 800 new confirmed infections were reported this week in Fresno County, pushing the cumulative number of cases since the coronavirus pandemic arrived in March 2020 to almost 278,000. There was also one additional death blamed on COVID-19 since last week, bringing to 2,888 the number of Fresno County residents who have lost their lives to the virus and the respiratory disease it causes.
The 814 cases that surfaced this week is the highest weekly number since early September, as summer cases from omicron variants of the coronavirus were sliding downward. Last week, Fresno County reported 467 new COVID-19 cases. The week-to-week difference is an increase of almost 75%,
Dr. Rais Vohra, Fresno County’s interim health officer, said Thursday there are indications that more cases may be on the horizon. Samples of wastewater from the city’s sewage systems are showing increasing remnants of the virus – a sign that infections are also on the rise.
Across Fresno, Kings, Madera, Mariposa, Merced and Tulare counties, weekly cases more than doubled from last week. Through Thursday, at least 1,519 cases surfaced across the six-county region – an increase of more than 108% from 729 cases the prior week – and 10 additional deaths were reported.
The rising cases in the Valley reflect what’s happening across California. Statewide, the daily rate of new cases per 100,000 residents over the past week has grown from 7.5 last week to 8.8.
In Fresno County the increase has been even more magnified, almost doubling from a daily average of 6.5 new infections per 100,000 residents in the week ending Nov. 12 to 11.3 per 100,000 residents this week. Among neighboring counties, new case rates are:
- Kings County: 201 new cases this week, up from 99 the previous week. The daily average new-case rate more than doubled from 14.1 per 100,000 residents last week to 28.7 this week.
- Madera County: 39 new cases this week through Thursday, compared to 58 for the week ending Nov. 12. The average rate of new cases climbed from 8.3 per 100,000 residents at the end of last week to 9.4 as of Thursday.
- Merced County: 205 new cases this week, up from 90 a week earlier. The new case rate lurched from 12.9 daily new cases per 100,000 residents for the week ending Nov. 12 to 29.3 this week.
- Tulare County: 260 new cases this week, up from only one reported the previous week. The average rate of new cases per day skyrocketed from 0.1 per 100,000 residents for the week ending Nov. 12 to 37.1 this week.
Across the region, cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 since March 2020 have climbed to more than 580,000, including almost 6,200 deaths.
The rising cases are believed to be from relatively new subvariants of omicron that have displaced older strains nationwide
Relatively new subvariants of omicron have displaced BA.5 as the predominant strains circulating nationwide, according to data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. A pair of subvariants known as BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 combined for 44% of U.S. virus cases, according to a weekly update by the CDC last Friday, while BA.5 fell to 30%. The preceding week, BA.5 made up 41% while the two BQ variants combined for 33%.
The Sacramento Bee contributed to this report.
