What’s behind the rise in COVID cases in Fresno, Valley? Here are the latest figures
Nearly 600 new cases of COVID-19 have been identified this week in Fresno County, pushing the rate of new infections in the county to its highest level in more than three months.
County and state health officials reported 133 new coronavirus infections Friday in the county, increasing the total for this week to 582 people who have contracted the virus. The weekly tally pushed the rate of new infections to 8.1 per day for every 100,000 residents over the past week – higher than it’s been since early April.
Dr. Rais Vohra, Fresno County’s interim health officer, said Thursday that the climbing numbers indicate the potential for a new “surge” in COVID-19 cases not only in the county, but statewide.
“We feel like we’re on the cusp of a surge statewide,” Vohra said, “and I think our region here in Fresno County will also be experiencing that same uptick in numbers.”
Cases have surged across neighboring counties in the central San Joaquin Valley to their largest numbers since early April. Through Friday morning, almost 1,100 new cases were reported this week across Fresno, Kings, Madera, Mariposa, Merced and Tulare counties.
Six deaths were acknowledged this week in Fresno County, among eight reported Valleywide as of Friday morning.
Since the first local coronavirus cases in March 2020, 103,637 cases of COVID-19 have been detected in Fresno County, including 1,736 people who have died from the virus and its complications. To date, 227,197 cases and 3,577 deaths have been reported Valleywide.
The Delta variant
Vohra said he believes the recent increase is due in part to the spread of the Delta variant of coronavirus, which emerged last fall in India and has become established around the world. Vohra said the Delta strain is not only more contagious, but potentially more severe in its effects on patients than other forms of COVID-19.
“This Delta variant threatens to throw us some curveballs in the next few weeks,” Vohra said.
As of Thursday, 33 people in Fresno County are confirmed to have been infected with the Delta variant. But Vohra said those numbers are based on coronavirus test samples taken as much as three weeks ago and believes the actual number to be much higher. He added that only a small percentage of all positive COVID-19 tests are sent to state labs for the additional genomic sequencing needed to determine whether the patient has the Delta variant or some other strain of the virus.
Valleywide, at least 110 cases of the Delta variant have been reported. Half of those are in Tulare County, where 55 cases have been detected as of Friday morning.
The California Department of Public Health reported this week that the Delta variant accounted for almost 83% of positive COVID tests that were submitted for genomic sequencing so far in July. That’s compared to about 53% last month, less than 6% in May, and only 2% in April.
Nationwide, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control estimates that the Delta strain represents more than 83% of new coronavirus cases over the past two weeks, compared to less than 1% in late April.
But there are other contributors to the growing number of cases, Vohra said, including complacency or hesitancy among residents to get vaccinated against COVID-19 and more people resuming an increased level of indoor activities outside their homes, including shopping, dining and recreation – sometimes disregarding a mandate for people who aren’t vaccinated to continue to wear masks in indoor venues.
“Really that combination of factors has let to this increase in case rates, and we’re afraid that’s gong to lead to an ultimate increase in the number of deaths,” Vohra said. “Those are arguably preventable deaths at this point if people get their vaccine.”
Hospitalizations ticking up
Valleywide, more people were being treated in hospitals for confirmed or suspected COVID-19 infections on Thursday than any day in more than two months.
Fresno County reported 59 inpatient cases with confirmed coronavirus infections, and 11 others with symptoms consistent with the virus but for whom tests were pending.
In the six-county region, 142 patients with confirmed or suspected COVID-19 infections were in hospitals. Of the confirmed cases, 23 were sick enough to require treatment in intensive-care units – the largest ICU number since May 18.
In Fresno County, Vohra said the health department has been in discussions with local hospitals “on almost a daily basis” about planning for another surge in coronavirus cases. In the first surge last summer, and again in December and January, hospitals across the Valley felt the strain of an increase in COVID-19 patients while, at the same time, doctors, nurses and other hospital staff were required to quarantine or isolate themselves because they either caught the virus or were exposed to someone who had the disease.
While he doesn’t expect the patient volume to match what happened in the winter, when as many as 600 people or more were in Fresno County hospitals on some days with COVID-19, “I am concerned,” Vohra said.
“I do feel like if this surge occurs – and there are so many signs now that we are going to have one – I am heartened by the fact that a great number of our health care workers are vaccinated,” he added.
Stagnant vaccination rates
Vaccination rates in Fresno County and its neighboring Valley counties remain well behind goals that were set when shots became available in December. In Fresno County, health officials hoped to get at least 65%, and as many as 75%, of the county’s 1 million residents vaccinated against COVID-19 by the end of this summer.
But Valley counties lag many other California counties. Statewide, 51.4% of the total population is now “fully vaccinated,” meaning they’ve received both doses of the two-shot vaccines from Moderna or Pfizer, or the single-dose medicine from Johnson & Johnson. Almost 60% of all California residents have gotten at least one shot of a vaccine.
In Fresno County, just over 415,000 residents are fully vaccinated, and about 70,600 are partially vaccinated. But that leaves almost 550,000 who have not received even one dose of vaccine – including about 190,000 children under the age of 12 who are not yet eligible to be vaccinated.
“The truth is, we are plateauing” in vaccinations, Vohra said this week. “It’s very disheartening to know we’ve only gotten to 50% of the eligible population. “We need to get to 70 to 75% … to achieve the benefit of vaccinations” and reach “herd immunity” to deprive the virus of potential hosts to multiply and spread.
Threat to reopening?
New cases and hospitalizations have reached higher levels than mid-June, when California eliminated its controversial “Blueprint for a Safer Economy,” a color-coded set of tiers governing the degree to which businesses and activities in individual counties could reopen from restrictions put in place to limit the spread of COVID-19.
As part of doing away with the blueprint, some limitations remained in place, including a requirement that people who aren’t vaccinated continue to wear face coverings in indoor venues outside their homes. But in many instances, businesses rely on an honor system, taking patrons and customers at their word that they’re vaccinated if they enter without a mask.
While the growing threat of the Delta variant and a rise in overall coronavirus infections have prompted some California counties to require everyone to wear face masks indoors regardless of vaccination status, Vohra said that’s not under consideration in Fresno County – at least not yet.
“I’m looking at the case rate very hard,” he said. “For unvaccinated people it seems to be around eight to 10 (new daily cases per 100,000 residents).” For people who are vaccinated, he added, the rate is less than 1 in 100,000.
“With the blueprint being gone, no one wants that tier system to be re-introduced,” he said.
If California had continued its color-coded risk tiers under the Blueprint for a Safer Economy, the new-case rate would put Fresno County back in red Tier 2, representing “substantial” transmission of COVID-19 among residents in the county. The tier system, implemented last summer and discontinued in mid-June, set rules for the degree to which businesses and activities could be open in counties based on the risk of viral spread.
The seven-day average new-case rate this week in Fresno County is almost four times higher than it was on June 15, when the blueprint system was dropped statewide. At that point, the county was in orange Tier 3, a less-restrictive level for businesses than the red tier.
Vohra reiterated a plea he’s issued for weeks urging people to get vaccinated, and for people who haven’t gotten their shots yet to comply with the masking rules.
“You don’t need to be worried about the crackpot conspiracy theories out there” about vaccines, he said. “We know what works. We know what the safest route is.”
“We know it comes with a little inconvenience,” Vohra added. “But when people cut corners, we do see people being put in harm’s way.”
This story was originally published July 23, 2021 at 2:31 PM.
