COVID tier change will make it easier for Fresno, Valley counties to advance reopenings
California is on the verge of achieving 4 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine to people who live in the most disadvantaged neighborhoods in the state, possibly as early as Monday afternoon or Tuesday.
Reaching that goal will pave the way for Fresno and other counties to more easily move into less-restrictive tiers of California’s Blueprint for a Safer Economy, a color-coded, phased program of reopening or expanding business operations.
In the central San Joaquin Valley, Fresno, Kings, Madera and Tulare counties are all in red Tier 2 denoting “substantial” spread of the coronavirus in the community. Mariposa County is in orange Tier 3, indicating “moderate” viral spread.
Merced County remains in purple Tier 1, the most-restrictive tier indicating “widespread” transmission of the virus.
On Monday, the California Department of Public Health reported that statewide, vaccines to the lowest 25% of ZIP codes on the Healthy Places Index were less than 40,000 shy of the 4 million goal. Once that mark is reached, it triggers relaxed thresholds for counties in red Tier 2 to move to orange, and for counties in orange Tier 3 to move to yellow Tier 4, the least-restrictive tier denoting “minimal” transmission of the virus.
“The state wants to see 4 million doses (in low-HPI ZIP codes) before they change the range,” David Luchini, assistant director of the Fresno County Department of Public Health, said last week. “When we hit that … the orange tier and the yellow tier will change.” Luchini added that he was confident that would happen early this week.
A county’s progress through the tiers is based on two key measures: the number of new cases that arise daily as a rate per 100,000 population, and the percentage of people tested for COVID-19 whose results come back positive for the virus. In the state’s tier assessment last week, state health officials pegged Fresno’s daily new-case rate at 8.2 per 100,000 residents, solidly within the range for red Tier 2.
The testing positivity rate in Fresno County county was 3.8% – low enough to not only be in red Tier 2, but also to qualify for orange Tier 3 once the daily new-case rate falls.
The adjusted tiers when California reaches the 4 million-dose mark will relax the benchmark for red-to-orange movement by about half, from fewer than 4 cases per 100,000 to fewer than 6 per 100,000. The orange-to-yellow threshold will change from less than 1 daily new case per 100,000 residents to fewer than 2.
“So it will be easier to get into the orange and yellow tiers,” Luchini said.
The tiers represent what business sectors within a county can be open, and the extent to which they can operate, based on the risk of transmitting COVID-19 from person to person.
In the red tier, for example, restaurants in Fresno, Kings, Tulare and Madera counties can open their dining rooms for indoor dining at up to 25% capacity – something they could not do legally under purple Tier 1. Churches can hold indoor services at up to 25% capacity, as can zoos and museums. Movie theaters can open at up to 25% or 100 people, whichever is fewer, and gyms and health clubs are allowed to be open indoors at up to 10% capacity.
Under orange Tier 3, restaurants and movie theaters can expand indoor operations to 50% capacity or 200 people, whichever is fewer. Churches, zoos and museums can expand indoor attendance to 50% capacity, and gyms can open at up to 25% capacity.
Bars that don’t serve food, which have been entirely closed under both the purple and red tiers, are allowed to reopen outdoors in the orange tier. Other sectors that have been restricted to outdoor operations, including family entertainment centers, wineries and breweries, cardrooms and satellite wagering businesses, could reopen indoors at up to 25% capacity.
When can tier change happen?
Still, a change to the tiers won’t mean an immediate change for Fresno, Kings or Merced counties. The state blueprint requires that a county remain in a tier for at least three weeks, and meet all of the criteria for the new tier for two weeks, before it can officially be reassigned by the state.
Tulare County has already spent three weeks in the red tier, and its new-case rate of 4.8 daily per 100,000 residents would be enough to put it in orange Tier 3 once the benchmarks are changed. The county’s test-positivity rate of 2.3% already meets the orange-tier goal of less than 5%.
That means Tulare County could move into the orange tier, with its relaxed restrictions, as soon as Wednesday.
Luchini said Fresno County’s best-case scenario for getting to the orange tier is April 21.
The testing-positivity rates for Fresno, Kings, Madera and Merced counties already are solidly in the orange-tier range, so it’s a matter of getting to or staying in red for the three-week minimum and the daily new case rates falling to less than 6 per 100,000 and staying there.
California also has a health-equity metric, measuring testing positivity in the lowest areas on the Healthy Places Index, that counties must meet to ensure that they are responding to health needs in those neighborhoods in roughly the same proportion as more-affluent communities.
Monday case updates
Coronavirus case updates from counties across the central San Joaquin Valley include:
Fresno County: 100 new cases on Monday, 385 cases since Friday’s report, 99,702 cases to date since the first confirmed infections in March 2020. The county did not report any additional deaths through mid-afternoon Monday, with the total to date standing at 1.597.
Kings County: No new cases Monday and 10 over the weekend, 22,669 to date; no additional deaths since Friday, 241 to date. More than 7,200 of the cases, and 17 deaths, have been among inmates at state prisons in Avenal and Corcoran.
Madera County: 32 new cases since Friday, 15,976 to date; no additional deaths since Friday, 234 to date. State prisons near Chowchilla represent almost 2,500 of the county’s confirmed cases.
Mariposa County: One new case since Friday, 411 to date; no additional deaths, seven to date.
Merced County: 219 new cases since Friday; 30,906 to date; three new deaths, 442 to date.
Tulare County: 29 new cases since Friday, 49,129 to date; no additional deaths, 813 to date.
Across the six-county region, the number of people who have contracted COVID-19 over the past 13 months is approaching 219,000, including more than 3,300 people whose deaths are attributed to the virus and its respiratory disease.
Vaccine eligibility
Madera County has opened eligibility to receive a COVID-19 vaccine shot to anyone age 16 and older. Similarly, Tulare County’s mass vaccination site at the International Agri Center in Tulare is taking appointments for anyone age 16 and older.
Both counties opened their vaccine tiers at a faster pace than California. Fresno, Kings, Mariposa and Merced counties are all following California state guidelines for who is eligible to receive shots of coronavirus vaccine, including health care professionals; emergency service workers; people who work in education, childcare or agriculture and food, including farm labor, restaurant and grocery workers; transportation industry workers; utility workers who respond on an emergency basis; anyone age 50 and older, regardless of occupation; and people ages 16 and up who have serious underlying health conditions.
This story was originally published April 5, 2021 at 3:52 PM.
