Coronavirus update: Vaccinations will impact reopening tiers — what does it mean for Fresno County?

California will make it easier for its counties to reopen under the Blueprint for a Safer Economy as more of its population is vaccinated against the coronavirus, according to Gov. Gavin Newsom administration officials.

What will that mean for Fresno County, one of 40 California counties still in the most-restrictive Purple Tier?

Once 2 million doses of coronavirus vaccines have been administered in the state’s most disadvantaged ZIP codes, the California Department of Public Health will lower the threshold for counties to move into the Red Tier.

Counties will be able to have 10 new cases per day per 100,000 residents, instead of the current seven new cases per day. The test positivity threshold for the red tier, 8%, will remain the same.

Fresno County has for the past two weeks had test positivity rates of 6.6% and 6.0%, but its number of new positive COVID-19 cases per day per 100,000 population has been well above seven new cases per day.

It has fallen considerably since the height of the winter surge – it was 75.2 on Jan. 18.

But the county’s adjusted case rate for tier assignment (the rate per 100,000 population excluding prison cases, and a 7-day average with a 7-day lag) still was 14.0 on March 2 and the number of new cases would likely have to decline sharply to get to 10 new coronavirus cases in that metric.

Six of the seven counties that moved to the Red Tier from the Purple Tier this week all had much lower 7-day averages for the number of new cases than Fresno County’s 149: El Dorado was at 21 on Wednesday, Lassen at 3, Modoc at 1, Napa at 16, San Francisco at 56 and San Luis Obispo at 31.

Santa Clara was at 198, but has a population almost twice as large as Fresno County and moved to the Red Tier with an adjusted case rate for tier assignment was 5.8, a 2.1% test positivity rate and a 4.8% health equity rate.

Fresno County did qualify to move up to the Red Tier in the third metric, healthy equity, which ensures testing positivity rates in low-income areas don’t lag behind the overall county average. Test positivity in those areas must be 8% or lower and Fresno County this week was at 7.1%, down from 8.3%.

A county must meet all three metrics for consecutive weeks before it can move into a less restrictive tier.

But getting to 10 new cases per day per 100,000 residents is not as daunting as getting to 7 per day per 100,000 residents, and that is an issue for four other central San Joaquin Valley counties in the Purple Tier.

Kings County had test positivity and health equity rates to move to the Red Tier, but its adjusted case rate for tier assignment was 16.0, according to the most recent update from the CDPH.

Merced and Tulare counties also had low test positivity and health equity rates, but the case rates were 16.5 and 11.0.

Madera County had a low test positivity rate, but its health equity rate was 8.1% and adjusted case rate 10.8. Mariposa County already is one of 16 counties in the Red Tier.

Under the state’s Blueprint for a Safer Economy, counties in the Purple Tier (widespread risk) currently have new cases per 100,000 of more than 7 and test positivity rates of 8% or higher; counties in the Red Tier (substantial) are between 4 and 7 and 5% and 8%; counties in the Orange Tier (moderate) are between 1 to 3.9 and 2 to 4.9% and counties in the Yellow Tier (minimal) have cases per 100,000 of less than 1 and a test positivity rate less than 2%

State officials said they expect to reach 2 million vaccinations in those targeted areas within the next one or two weeks. When California has administered 4 million vaccination doses in its most disadvantaged zip codes, the CDPH will also change its thresholds to move to the Orange Tier and to the least restrictive Yellow Tier, according to administration officials who briefed reporters on background about the changes.

There are currently two counties in the Orange Tier, Alpine and Sierra, and none in the Yellow Tier.

Latest CDPH updates for the central San Joaquin Valley

Fresno County had 108 new confirmed COVID-19 cases on Wednesday, according to the California Department of Public Health, with a total of 95,785 since the start of the pandemic.

There were no new deaths, that total remaining at 1,451.

The number of coronavirus patients in county hospitals grew by 10 and was back over the 200 mark at 208, though patients in intensive care units were done by one to 38.

Also in the central San Joaquin Valley:

Kings County

• 11 new cases; 21,999 total
• 0 new deaths; 220 total
• 14-day positivity rate: 10.7%

Madera County

• 18 new cases; 15,523 total
• 0 new deaths; 214 total
• 14-day positivity rate: 10.5%

Mariposa County

• 1 new case; 376 total
• 0 new deaths; 7 total
• 14-day positivity rate: 4.0%

Merced County

• 23 new cases; 28,598 total
• 4 new deaths; 405 total
• 14-day positivity rate: 7.7%

Tulare County

• 51 new cases; 47,326 total
• 5 new deaths; 766 total
• 14-day positivity rate: 6.4%

In California on Wednesday there were 3,352 new confirmed coronavirus cases with the total rising to 3,494,963.

There were 278 new deaths, with a total of 52,775.

Brazil variant pops up in Los Angeles County

Los Angeles County public health officials said on Wednesday that the county’s first case of a COVID-19 variant from Brazil was confirmed late last week.

It would be the first case in the state, according to the latest update from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention – the CDC on Tuesday listed 212 cases of a variant traced to the United Kingdom and three of a variant from South Africa in the state.

The variant from Brazil is thought to be more transmissible than earlier forms of the coronavirus. The New York Times reported on Monday that the Brazilian variant fueled a record-breaking spike in cases in the city of Manaus and gained the ability to infect some people who had immunity from previous cases of COVID-19.

The Los Angeles County public health lab has tested 679 specimens of the COVID-19 virus checking for the presence of mutations. It has found 27 cases of the U.K. variant and the one case of the Brazil variant.

In its most recent tests of 55 specimens, 31 (or 56%) included mutations characterized by a California variant suggesting it, despite tumbling case total, still is widely circulating in the county.

This story was originally published March 4, 2021 at 7:49 AM.