Coronavirus update: As numbers improve across state, a warning on homegrown variant

The number of new COVID-19 cases, deaths and hospitalizations continues to fall across the state.

Fresno County and others in the central San Joaquin Valley, with reduced numbers of new COVID-19 cases and a lower percentage of people testing positive for coronavirus, are closer to moving to a less-rescrictive tier in the state’s Blueprint for a Safer Economy.

The county, with its 7-day test positivity rate down to 6.6%, also next week will be expanding vaccine eligibility and start to administer shots of the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines to workers in education and the food/agriculture industries.

But researchers at UC San Francisco on Tuesday sounded an alarm on a homegrown and potentially more dangerous variant that emerged midway through 2020 and spreads more rapidly, evades antibodies generated by COVID-19 vaccines or prior infection and is on track to account for most of the cases in the state.

It probably will account for account for 90% of the COVID-19 infections in the state by the end of next month, Dr. Charles Chiu, an infectious diseases researcher and physician, told the Los Angeles Times.

“The devil is already here,” Chiu said. “I wish it were different. But the science is the science.”

Chiu led the UCSF team of geneticists, epidemiologists and statisticians in analyzing the strain of the coronavirus, described as a “variant of concern” on par with those from the United Kingdom, South Africa and Brazil.

There are 204 cases of the U.K. variant in California, according to the latest data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the third most of any state behind Florida (489) and Michigan (210).

The likelihood that the two variants could circulate in the same population could lead to another spike in COVID-19 cases and deaths, Chiu told the Times. It also is possible the two variants meet in a single person and create a more dangerous strain of the coronavirus.

Updates from the Central San Joaquin Valley

Fresno County had 210 new confirmed coronavirus cases on Tuesday, according to the California Department of Public Health, bringing its total since the start of the pandemic to 94,584.

The 7-day and 14-day averages on new cases are 193 and 225.

There also were 30 new deaths reported, the most in a day since there were 50 on Feb. 16, and the total is now 1,397. Elsewhere in the central San Joaquin Valley:

Kings County

• 17 new cases; 21,801 total
• 7-day- average 32; 14-day 41
• 1 new death; 216 total

Madera County

• 27 new cases; 15,325 total
• 7-day average 31; 14-day 31
• 0 new deaths; 210 total

Mariposa County

• 1 new case; 375 total
• 7-day average 1; 14-day 1
• 0 new deaths; 7 total

Merced County

• 60 new cases; 28,166 total
• 7-day average 73; 14-day 77
• 3 new deaths; 391 total

Tulare County

• 49 new cases; 46,879 total
• 7-day average 76; 14-day 90
• 2 new deaths; 722 total

Statewide there were 3,447 new confirmed COVID-19 cases, well under the 7-day average of 5,429, and a total of 3,450,058.

Los Angeles County passes 20,000 deaths

There also were 225 new coronavirus-related deaths as the state continues to close in on 50,000. The CDPH is counting 49,563 COVID-19 deaths, though the Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University upped its total to 49,888 in an early Wednesday morning update.

Los Angeles County reported 157 new deaths in a late Tuesday update, pushing it past a chilling milestone. The county now has 20,057 coronavirus-related deaths, and a renewed a call from public health officials urging people to wear a mask, to social distance and follow health and safety guidelines.

“As we mark this heartbreaking day and note with sadness the loss of over 20,000 County residents, we mourn with all of you who have lost someone you love to COVID-19. We are deeply sorry for your loss, and wish you healing and peace,” said Dr. Barbara Ferrer, the county director of public health.

“As more and more of our county residents return to businesses and school, it’s important to remember that the actions we all take today will affect the numbers of cases, hospitalizations and deaths several weeks from now.

“As we continue to bear witness to the devastating loss of life from COVID-19, we ask that everyone continue to use the tools we know work to slow the spread of the virus: wear a mask and keep 6-feet of distance anytime you are around others not in your household. This virus is still easily transmitted among people in contact with each other and we must do all we can to continue the momentum of the decreases we are seeing cases, hospitalizations and deaths.”

There are only seven states with more than 20,000 coronavirus-related deaths — California, New York, Texas, Florida, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Illinois.

This story was originally published February 24, 2021 at 7:11 AM.