Coronavirus updates: California infection rates fall; variants prompt vaccine urgency
California’s coronavirus infections continue to decline sharply and consistently from the winter surge’s peak around the start of the year, but there’s still work to be done in fighting the pandemic.
Health officials’ main emphasis now is to support the ramp-up of California’s struggling vaccine rollout while continuing to stress the importance of measures like social distancing, mask use and the avoidance of gatherings until the vaccine is much more widely available.
A point of concern is the possibility that genetic variants of COVID-19 — either ones that have already surfaced in recent weeks around the globe, or ones that have not yet mutated or been detected — will emerge that are more infectious, significantly resistant to vaccines, or both.
Whittling down California’s case rate is essential. Not only will it buy time to distribute more vaccine, but it could decrease the likelihood of troublesome variants mutating.
And if there is another surge before many more Californians are vaccinated, bringing the numbers to a lower baseline could help ensure the peak of that surge doesn’t grow high enough to overwhelm hospital systems, as the winter surge has done in Southern California and the San Joaquin Valley for weeks.
Key rates of COVID-19 — new cases, test positivity rate, hospitalizations and the number of patients in intensive care units — have all been declining for close to three weeks.
All of those rates, though, remain elevated well above pre-surge numbers.
Two-week test positivity has fallen from 14% on Jan. 8 to 8.5% by Thursday. The recent mark is California’s lowest since Dec. 6, but it still eclipses the highest rate during the stretch from May through November, which was 7.6% in late July.
Likewise, the concurrent total of hospitalized COVID-19 patients has dropped from a peak of nearly 22,000 in early January, falling to about 16,250 as of Thursday, the lowest total since Dec. 17. But that’s still more than double any hospitalization total CDPH reported prior to Thanksgiving.
The ICU patient total is dropping more slowly than overall hospitalizations because those who are most critically ill with COVID-19 can spend weeks in hospital beds.
To date, more than 3.18 million Californians have tested positive for COVID-19 and at least 38,961 have died of the virus, according to CDPH data updated Thursday.
California on Thursday reported 737 virus deaths, its second-highest daily total of the pandemic, pushing the average for the past two weeks to a record-high 522 per day.
The state’s death rate will likely take a couple of weeks to start declining, lagging behind drops in hospital and ICU admissions.
State releases county-by-county vaccine data
CDPH updated its vaccination data tracker on Wednesday to include tallies for doses administered by county of residence.
About seven weeks into U.S. vaccine rollout, the new data give the fullest look yet at how many shots have actually been given across various parts of California. The dashboard still lacks other key data such as how many doses have been shipped to each county and hospital system, and how many are first doses vs. second doses.
Through Wednesday morning, CDPH reported about 2.73 million total doses have been given statewide. That amounts to about 6,425 shots per 100,000 residents in the state of 40 million people.
There are regional disparities in the data, but the numbers should be looked at cautiously: under-reporting is more likely than over-reporting, as health officials statewide have encountered problems reporting their vaccine data in the early weeks of distribution. Also, about 152,000 doses included in the 2.73 million total did not have a county specified.
Sixteen of California’s 58 counties were above the statewide average of 6,804 per 100,000, while 42 counties were below it. Eight of the 42 — Alpine, Inyo, Mariposa, Modoc, Mono, Plumas, Sierra and Trinity, all of which have fewer than 20,000 residents — were listed Wednesday as having zero residents receiving doses.
Leading the way are two Bay Area counties: Napa (12,093 per 100,000) and Marin (10,189) were the only counties reported to have administered more than 10,000 doses per 100,000 residents as of Wednesday’s update.
Rounding out the top five were Mendocino (8,769), Contra Costa (8,721) and Placer (8,704).
In the Sacramento area, Yolo County is slightly above the statewide average (6,810 shots per 100,000). Sacramento and El Dorado counties were each around 5,700 per 100,000.
Sacramento County’s public health office last week was mistakenly allocated only 975 doses. The county scrounged up about 5,700 more from the state during the week. Health Officer Dr. Olivia Kasirye told The Bee the issue was fixed and the county’s allocation for this week was 13,000.
The percentage of fully vaccinated people — those with both the first and second doses — in each county is unclear, because it’s unknown how many residents have received both shots of Pfizer or Moderna’s two-shot regimens as opposed to just one. Federal data updated Wednesday, though, indicate about 84% of shots given statewide in California have been first doses.
Latest Sacramento-area numbers: Over 135,000 total cases
The six counties that make up the bulk of the 13-county Greater Sacramento region — Sacramento, El Dorado, Placer, Sutter, Yolo and Yuba counties — have reported more than 135,000 combined positive cases and at least 1,741 virus deaths.
Following the statewide trend, the rate of new cases is slowing in all six of those counties while deaths, which lag a few weeks behind infections, continue to pour in.
Sacramento County has confirmed 84,901 cases since the start of the pandemic, and at least 1,216 of those residents have died of COVID-19. The county reported 603 new cases and eight deaths Thursday, following 367 cases and 14 deaths reported Wednesday.
By date of death occurrence, December was by far Sacramento County’s deadliest month of the pandemic. County health officials have confirmed 376 deaths for the month, including two first reported in Thursday’s daily update. The death toll more than doubled that of August, the previous worst month, in which 181 county residents died of the virus.
Local health officials now say at least 160 county residents died of the virus between Jan. 1 and Jan. 20. That figure is still preliminary as death confirmations can take weeks to be made official.
Virus hospitalizations in Sacramento County have trended mostly a decline while the ICU patient total remains elevated but may also be showing early signs of dropping. The overall patient total dipped from 382 on Wednesday to 379 by Thursday’s state data update.
The countywide ICU total, which hit a record-high 130 early last week, dropped to 108 Thursday, down from 112 both Tuesday and Wednesday. The state now reports 61 available ICU beds, up from 54 Wednesday.
Placer County health officials have confirmed a total of 18,129 infections and 192 deaths. Placer on Wednesday reported 95 new cases and four fatalities.
State data showed 105 hospitalized in Placer, down from 113 on Wednesday, but the ICU total increased from 24 to 27. The number of available ICU beds increased by one, though, from six to seven.
Yolo County has reported a total of 11,246 cases and 147 deaths. Yolo added 60 cases and one death Wednesday after confirming 90 cases and eight fatalities Tuesday.
State data showed Yolo with 22 virus patients Thursday, down from 27 on Wednesday. The ICU patient total has fallen from a record-high 18 in Sunday’s update down to eight, according to CDPH, but zero ICU beds are available.
El Dorado County has reported 8,268 positive test results and 71 deaths. The county reported just 23 new cases Wednesday but five new deaths, following 61 cases and four deaths Tuesday.
El Dorado has reported an influx of COVID-19 deaths. In the past week, the county disclosed 29 deaths, which is 41% of its death toll for the nearly 11-month health crisis.
Following just five deaths from March through late November, at least 66 El Dorado residents have died of COVID-19 in the past two months, dating back to Thanksgiving.
State health officials reported 18 virus patients in El Dorado hospitals as of Thursday, which matches the lowest total since Dec. 6 and is down from 23 at the start of this week. The ICU total has fluctuated, from nine on Tuesday to five on Wednesday and six by Thursday, with four additional ICU beds still available.
In Sutter County, at least 8,166 people have contracted the virus and 85 have died. Sutter on Wednesday added 38 new cases and one new death, following 63 cases and one death reported Tuesday.
Sutter reported 26 residents hospitalized with COVID-19 including six in intensive care as of Wednesday, down from 27 and nine on Tuesday.
Neighboring Yuba County has reported 5,237 infections and 30 dead. The county added only 10 new cases and no deaths Wednesday, following 52 cases Tuesday.
Yuba said Wednesday it had 33 residents hospitalized with the virus, same as Tuesday, with five still in the ICU.
Not all patients are hospitalized in-county, but the only hospital serving the Yuba-Sutter bicounty region — Adventist-Rideout in Marysville — had 51 hospitalized virus patients as of Thursday, down from 54 on Wednesday. The ICU total dipped slightly from 12 to 11, and and available ICU beds held at four.
This story was originally published January 28, 2021 at 9:38 AM with the headline "Coronavirus updates: California infection rates fall; variants prompt vaccine urgency."
