Fresno County’s top doctor expects ‘a purple Thanksgiving’ as new COVID-19 cases rise
Fresno County’s top doctor said he expects the county to return to a higher degree of business-reopening restrictions next week and beyond as a rise in new coronavirus cases continues to create concern.
“Speaking frankly, I think we’re going to have a purple Thanksgiving,” said Dr. Rais Vohra, interim health officer for the Fresno County Department of Public Health, in a video call with reporters Tuesday.
The color reference relates to California’s four-tier, color-coded “Blueprint for a Safer Economy.” Since Sept. 29, Fresno County has been in red Tier 2, denoting “substantial” risk for COVID-19 to spread in the community. Earlier Tuesday, state health officials announced that Fresno County would remain in the red.
But the number of new cases observed in the county also increased to a level where, if they don’t come back down by next week, Fresno County would be reassigned back into Tier 1, color-coded purple for widespread risk of viral transmission. If that happens, among the changes confronting residents and businesses are that restaurants would once again be limited to outdoor dining, take-out or delivery; churches could not hold services indoors, and gyms would be limited to outdoor operations.
“I expect we’re going to be back in purple next week,” Vohra said. “On the one hand it’s disappointing, but on the other hand it’s not surprising because we’ve seen the numbers tick up over the last seven days.”
The California Department of Public Health announces its tier assessments for all 58 counties each Tuesday.
In red Tier 2, some of the most notable limitations imposed earlier this year to hinder the spread of COVID-19 have been relaxed for certain business sectors including:
- Restaurants that were previously allowed to only offer take-out, delivery or outdoor dining have been able to resume indoor dining service at up to 25% capacity.
- Churches and houses of worship, which had been barred from indoor services, can have services at up to 25% capacity.
- Gyms and health clubs can operate indoors at up to 10% capacity.
But on Tuesday, the state reported that Fresno County now exceeds one of the two key measures used for the red tier status. The number of daily new cases in the county was calculated at 8.3 per 100,000 residents – higher than the red-tier ceiling of 7.0. If that rate stays elevated for a second consecutive week, the state can reassign the county back to the more restrictive purple tier.
A second factor is the percentage of people being tested over the course of a seven-day period whose results come back positive for infection with the virus. Fresno County’s testing positivity rate on Tuesday was reported at 5.5%, which is under the red-tier threshold of 8.0%. A county, however, must meet both the case-rate and testing positivity measures to maintain its tier status.
Both the case rate and testing positivity reflect data processed by the state for the week ending Oct. 31.
“We won’t be the only county that’s experiencing a surge,” Vohra said. Of California’s 58 counties, 10 were demoted Tuesday to more restrictive tiers of the blueprint system, including Sacramento and San Diego counties falling from red to purple.
Another 26 counties saw either their case rates or the percentage of residents testing positive for COVID-19 exceed their current tier thresholds for one week and in danger of retreating next week. In the central San Joaquin Valley, red-tier Kings and Merced counties also missed the case-rate mark and, like Fresno, could fall back into purple next week, in the Nov. 17 tier assignments.
Mariposa County, which has been in the least restrictive yellow Tier 4 denoting “minimal” risk since Sept. 22, potentially could move back into orange Tier 3, representing “moderate” risk of viral spread in the community.
In a process that’s been described by Gov. Gavin Newsom and state Health & Human Services Secretary Dr. Mark Ghaly as a “dimmer switch” approach, the state’s blueprint allows for gradually advancing counties into less restrictive tiers based on improving health metrics.
Just as a dimmer switch can be used to gradually brighten a light, state health officials can lower the switch and reassign a county back into a more restrictive tier if its new-case rate or testing positivity deteriorates and slides above the tier threshold.
Coronavirus case slide started in October
In October, Fresno County’s new-case rate fluttered back and forth across the purple/red threshold, threatening to send the county back into the more restrictive purple tier if it missed the mark for two consecutive weeks.
Vohra said he noticed that Fresno County’s number of new cases were increasing even before the state’s latest tier announcement Tuesday. “We have multiple different trends that are pointing in the wrong direction,” he said, adding that hospitalizations of confirmed COVID-19 patients, including admissions into hospital intensive-care units, have been on the rise in recent days.
But “it’s not too late. We shouldn’t be fatalistic and say, ‘Let’s just give up,’” Vohra added. “It’s a sign that we have more work to do. … It’s time for us to be more creative in the way that we live our lives and try to keep each other safe.”
As he has since the spring, Vohra emphasized the importance of people wearing face coverings and maintaining social distancing when out in public. He encouraged people to remain vigilant with the safety measures and not give in to feelings of “pandemic fatigue” after so many months of limitations on activities and businesses.
This story was originally published November 10, 2020 at 4:42 PM.
