Coronavirus
Nearly 66,000 lives may be saved if most in US wear masks, COVID-19 model predicts
On the afternoon of Aug. 6, the U.S. death toll for COVID-19 inched closer to 160,000, which represents 22.5% of all coronavirus deaths in the world, according to Johns Hopkins University.
That death toll is predicted to swell to nearly 300,000 by December, the University of Washington Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation’s (IHME) model projects.
But if most everyone in the United States would wear masks outside their home, starting immediately, that number could be reduced by nearly 66,000, according to the IHME model.
“We’re seeing a roller coaster in the United States,” IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray said in a news release. “It appears that people are wearing masks and socially distancing more frequently as infections increase, then after a while as infections drop, people let their guard down and stop taking these measures to protect themselves and others — which, of course, leads to more infections. And the potentially deadly cycle starts over again.”
The projection forecasts the U.S. death toll will reach 295,011 by December.If 95% of people start wearing masks in public, the year’s death toll would fall to 228,271, the model predicts.
While there seem to be fewer transmissions in hot spots like Arizona, California, Florida and Texas, deaths are still rising, Murray says. The drop in transmission correlates with the rise in mask mandates, bar and restaurant closures and overall more responsible behavior among the public, according to IHME.
“The public’s behavior had a direct correlation to the transmission of the virus and, in turn, the numbers of deaths,” Murray said. “Such efforts to act more cautiously and responsibly will be an important aspect of COVID-19 forecasting and the up-and-down patterns in individual states throughout the coming months and into next year.”
Cases, hospitalizations and deaths are on the rise in Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon and Virginia, according to Murray.
“These states may experience increasing cases for several weeks and then may see a response toward more responsible behavior,” Murray said.
Several states have mandated face coverings since July 15, but enforceable mask mandates are more effective than those that have no penalties, IHME data shows. Mask orders with no penalties drove the number of people wearing masks up by 8%, while mandates with penalties increased the number of people wearing masks by 15%.
“These efforts, along with media coverage and public information efforts by state and local health agencies and others, have led to an increase in the US rate of mask wearing by about 5 percentage points since mid-July,” Murray said.
The model predicts that some states will need to reimpose mask mandates in specified months:
August — Arizona, Florida, Mississippi and South Carolina
September — Georgia and Texas
October — Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina, Oregon and Washington
November — Alabama, Arkansas, California, Iowa, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Utah and Wisconsin
The mandates could be pushed back by six to eight weeks on average if 95% of people wear masks, the model projects. The model assumes that 50% of school districts in the U.S. will only offer online instruction for the 2020-2021 school year, according to IHME.
“We recognize that, given mask wearing, the likely restrictions on after-school activities, and the potential for some parents to avoid engaging in school-related functions, our estimated impact of school openings may be overly pessimistic,” Murray said.
As of Aug. 6, the U.S. reported a total of more than 4.87 million confirmed cases of coronavirus, according to Johns Hopkins University.
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