When will COVID-19 cases peak in Fresno and how long will we have to shelter in place?
Fresno can expect to see its peak in coronavirus cases a few weeks after some of the state’s larger metropolitan areas, Fresno County health officials said Monday.
The county may be short up to hundreds of intensive care beds and ventilators depending on how well Fresno practiced social distancing and was able to “flatten the curve,” said Dr. Rais Vohra, Fresno County interim health officer.
Vohra predicted Fresno will see its peak at the end of April.
“Predictions are predictions,” he said. “They’re not hard confirmation of exactly what’s going to happen.”
County residents can expect to shelter in place until the curve is more or less flattened nationally, statewide and locally, he said. It’s too early to say when that might be, he said.
Hospitals in Fresno currently have about 150 intensive care beds and ventilators, but many already are in use for patients who don’t have COVID-19, Vohra said. It’s hard to know how many are in use and available at any time, he said.
“What we need depends on how well we’ll be able to flatten the curve,” Vohra said. “Based on the worst-case-scenario kind of modeling, we’re definitely going to need more than what we have. We may need several hundred more beds and ventilators, which is a source of consternation because if we do get a surge that happens very suddenly … we’re going to be very challenged in providing the top-level care for these critically ill patients.”
Hospital response
Hospitals in the Fresno area were proactive and already added dozens of beds in some cases, Vohra said.
According to April 5 data from the California Department of Public Health, about 15% of Fresno’s intensive care unit beds were occupied by COVID-19 patients.
Saint Agnes Medical Center two weeks ago rolled out a whole new operating model, called a hospital incident command structure, said Kim Meeker, chief operating officer for Saint Agnes. It’s similar to a disaster response, but different as it relates to COVID-19 in that Saint Agnes may operate under the structure for months rather than a short time.
“We’re doing the same thing every hospital in America is doing, which is preparing for the worst and hoping for the best,” Meeker said.
The hospital has 45 intensive care beds and has created a separate area for patients who are positive for COVID-19 or are suspected to have it. The hospital is prepared to increase its ICU capacity by about 50%, or up to 22 beds, as needed, Meeker said.
A January 2020 fact sheet for Community Regional Medical Center in downtown Fresno said the hospital has 48 adult intensive care beds, 20 neuro ICU and 10 pediatric ICU. Clovis Community Medical Center also offers intensive care, but exact numbers were not available.
Kaiser Permanente Fresno officials said in a statement that the hospital is taking aggressive and proactive action to prepare for a surge of COVID-19 patients. The medical provider has a comprehensive plan to make sure there’s enough space and supplies to care for patients and protect staff. The exact number of ICU beds was not available.
Vohra said 14 people were in Fresno County hospitals on Monday being treated for COVID-19. As of Monday the county had 124 confirmed cases and two deaths, he said.
This story was originally published April 6, 2020 at 5:35 PM.