Huge World Cup win has US on brink of clinching knockout game at Levi’s Stadium
Team USA did its part Friday afternoon in Seattle, defeating Australia 2-0, and with a little help in the evening, the Americans could punch their ticket to Levi’s Stadium for the first knockout round of the World Cup.
Because with the victory, the U.S. men’s national team leads Group D with 6 points in the standings and owns tiebreakers over both Australia and Paraguay, which the U.S. defeated 4-1 in its opener.
Turkey is now the only Group D opponent that could tie Team USA. So if Turkey either loses to or ties Paraguay at Levi’s Stadium late Friday night, the U.S. men’s national team would win Group D before playing its third and final match of the group stage, setting up a trip to Santa Clara for the Round of 32 on July 1.
Clinching the group as early as Friday night is possible because FIFA changed tiebreakers for this year’s World Cup, giving less weight to goal differential. The first tiebreaker is now head-to-head record.
If Turkey beats Paraguay on Friday, then USMNT would need a win or tie against the Turks in the final group-stage match to win the group. It’s also worth noting the U.S. win over Australia on Friday already all but guarantees a knockout stage appearance; still, winning Group D would give the Americans the best draw, as they would face a third-place finisher from Group B, E, F, I, or J.
If it sounds complicated, it is.
It’s part of FIFA growing the field from 32 to 48 teams for this iteration of the World Cup, which is the biggest in the event’s history with its total of 104 matches, up from the 64-match format used from 1998 to 2022. The new format added 16 teams in four groups, with the knockout stage beginning with 32 teams rather than 16 previously.
This also means the top eight third-place teams, decided heavily by tiebreakers, will move on to the Round of 32, which is why the tiebreakers are such a significant part of the story of this World Cup.
USA winning the group would also be big for the Bay Area, which would wind up hosting one of the biggest matches in the USMNT’s history at Levi’s Stadium. The U.S. men’s team has never won the World Cup.
What if US finishes second or worse?
Should the U.S. finish second in Group D, behind Turkey, USMNT would face the second-place finisher in Group G (made up of Belgium, Egypt, Iran and New Zealand; all four entered Friday having tied their first game) at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.
FIFA’s reworked tiebreakers
A refresher: in the group stage, wins are worth 3 points and draws are worth 1, and each team plays the other three opponents in its group once. That means teams can get a maximum of 9 points in the group stage, while there will likely be many ties. Hence, tiebreakers.
Here are the full tiebreaker rules from FIFA for teams that have the same number of points following their three group stage matches (plus a quick translation for a couple of the wordier tiebreakers).
Step 1
— Greatest number of points obtained in the group matches between the teams concerned. (In short, head-to-head record.)
— Superior goal difference resulting from the group matches between the teams concerned. (In short, goal differential.)
— Greatest number of goals scored in all group matches between the teams concerned.
Step 2
— Superior goal difference in all group matches.
— Greatest number of goals scored in all group matches.
— Highest team conduct score (players and team officials) relating to the number of yellow and red cards obtained.
Step 3
If teams remain tied after the above tiebreakers the final decider will be their most recent FIFA World Rankings. The U.S. would own this tiebreaker, as they entered the World Cup ranked No. 17 by FIFA, ahead of No. 22 Turkey, No. 27 Australia and No. 41 Paraguay.
This story was originally published June 19, 2026 at 5:00 AM with the headline "Huge World Cup win has US on brink of clinching knockout game at Levi’s Stadium."
