Governor’s race poll shows which voters are driving Hilton and Becerra’s rise
Republican Steve Hilton and Democrat Xavier Becerra are consolidating support in the race to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom ahead of the June 2 primary, according to a poll of 1,200 likely California voters released Tuesday.
The survey, which was commissioned by the California Democratic Party, shows Hilton as the top choice for 22% of likely voters, Becerra one point behind him, Democrat Tom Steyer at 15% support and Republican Chad Bianco with 10%. The remaining four Democrats — Katie Porter, Matt Mahan, Antonio Villaraigosa and Tony Thurmond — remain stalled in the single digits.
The poll is the latest sign Democrats will avoid being locked out of the general election; only two candidates, regardless of party, advance from the primary. Bianco and Hilton topped some polls earlier this year.
California Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks, who’d commissioned a series of polls earlier this year as a way to encourage lower-polling candidates to exit the race, suggested in a news conference Tuesday that he no longer saw as urgent a need to trim the field.
“Given the consolidation that we’ve seen, particularly with the Becerra campaign, I’m not sure that it necessarily matters,” Hicks said.
The poll includes breakouts by different self-identified demographic groups, giving a sense of how the leading candidates are winning support.
Steve Hilton
Hilton, a former Fox News host, was a leading candidate even before President Donald Trump endorsed him last month. He’s now winning 56% of Republican voters, according to the poll, compared to 25% who back Bianco. Hilton’s strongest region is the Central Valley, where he’s won 39% support; no other candidate was as popular in any single area. He’s slightly more popular among men than women.
The Brit is winning nearly a third of voters over 65. He’s also the top polling candidate among white voters, though as with other demographic groups, a majority of those voters support one of the Democrats.
Xavier Becerra
Becerra, a former state attorney general and U.S. secretary of health and human services, has shown a meteoric rise from 3% support in the poll released March 17 to 22% in the latest survey. He’s done it by growing his share of the Democratic vote to 37%, the highest in the field. Becerra is the top performing candidate in the Sacramento region, where he grew up and currently resides, and is roughly equally popular among men and women.
The Democrat shows relatively consistent support among different age groups, but is strongest among 45 to 54-year-olds, where he’s still topped slightly by Hilton. Becerra out-polls all of his rivals when it comes to Black and Latino voters. Nearly a third of Latino voters polled say he’s their top candidate. If elected, Becerra would be the first Latino governor since 1875.
Tom Steyer
Steyer, a billionaire progressive activist and donor, has edged up 5% in the CADEMS polls since the first one was released March 17. He’s now the top pick for 23% of Democrats. Steyer’s strongest region is Los Angeles, with 20% support in the area, though both Becerra and Hilton are a few points ahead of him there. The poll shows Steyer winning a higher percentage of female voters than male ones.
Steyer has the strongest support among young voters; he’s tied with Becerra for the top spot among voters aged 34 and under, and leads 35- to 44 year-olds with 27% support. Steyer is the highest polling candidate among Asian Americans with 20% support, narrowly edging out Hilton.
This story was originally published May 20, 2026 at 5:00 AM with the headline "Governor’s race poll shows which voters are driving Hilton and Becerra’s rise."
