Will California have a cool summer or hotter-than-normal temps? See 2026 forecast
Weather across California has been anything but predictable lately, swinging from sunny skies to stretches of heavy rain and mountain snow.
With summer just a couple of months away, many might be wondering what comes next.
Will these sudden weather shifts continue — or is a long stretch of hot days on the way?
Here’s what the 2026 summer outlook shows:
When is the first day of summer?
The first day of summer is marked by the summer solstice, when the sun reaches its highest point in the sky, according to the Old Farmer’s Almanac.
This happens when the North Pole is tilted closest to the sun, giving the Northern Hemisphere its longest day of the year and the most daylight.
In California, the official start of summer falls on June 21.
What’s in the summer 2026 forecast for California?
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center expects above-normal temperatures across the state from June through August.
“Normal” is based on the average of all temperatures from 1991 to 2020.
“The dominant weather pattern expected to shape California’s summer this year is the persistence of mid-level high pressure,” said Anthony Artusa, a meteorologist with the Climate Prediction Center.
This will allow temperatures — especially inland — to climb.
Coastal areas might stay a bit cooler due to the marine layer.
There’s also a chance that monsoon moisture could bring thunderstorms later in the summer.
However, it’s “difficult to predict the specific details of this feature well in advance,” Artusa said.
Could El Niño impact summer weather?
There’s about an 80% chance that an El Niño pattern will develop this summer, according to Dan Collins, a meteorologist with the Climate Prediction Center.
“Should an El Niño develop, impacts on California weather in summer are weak,” Collins said. “Significant impacts of an El Niño are more likely in autumn and winter, when El Niño years are more likely to experience increased precipitation and cooler temperatures in the south, while less-than-average precipitation and warmer-than-average temperatures are more likely in the north.”
Warmer temperatures tied to broader climate patterns could increase drought conditions and wildfire risks as the season goes on.
Will California see more heat waves this year?
The northern half of the state is most at risk for dangerous heat this summer, “especially once impacts from El Niño begin to be felt” from June through September, Artusa said.
“Climate change research suggests that extreme heat waves are becoming more frequent and intense,” said Courtney Carpenter, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service
How are current drought and water levels in California?
As of Tuesday, April 21, about 44% of California showed no drought conditions, according to the federal Drought Monitor.
The remaining 56% of the state was “abnormally dry,” with about 5% experiencing “moderate drought” conditions, the drought monitor said.
“For at least the time being, there is very little drought across the state,” Artusa said. “However, this may become more problematic with time as expected impacts from El Niño begin to be felt across the region.”
According to the state Water Resources Department, reservoirs across California were holding approximately 33 million acre-feet of water as of Tuesday, April 21.
“Overall water supply in California is a function of two factors: water availability and water demand,” said Pete Fickenscher, Development and Operations Hydrologist with the California Nevada River Forecast Center. “Water availability is largely determined by wintertime precipitation and springtime runoff.”
Precipitation in key regions — including the Sierra Nevada — has been near or above normal, and an early spring runoff helped boost reservoir levels to about 120% of the historical average for mid-April.
“Water demand, particularly during the summer season, can vary from year to year depending on temperatures and water quality requirements,” Fickenscher said. “However, with statewide reservoir storage currently well above normal conditions, even high water demand is not expected to cause water supply issues this summer.”
What are the chances for summer storms?
The Climate Prediction Center’s seasonal precipitation outlook shows “equal chances” of above-normal, near-normal or below-normal precipitation levels for June, July and August.
“We typically don’t receive much precipitation across the state during those months but can see periods of mountain showers and thunderstorms if enough monsoon moisture pushes north,” Carpenter said.
While thunderstorms can only be forecast within a week or two in advance, the meteorologist said, the weather agency “will be watching for the potential for pushes of monsoon moisture up into the Sierra from the desert southwest.”
“These thunderstorms can bring heavy rainfall and potential flooding issues with them, but sometimes lack moisture and bring dry lightning, which can cause potential wildfire starts,” Carpenter said.
Where are highest wildfire risks in California this summer?
Current wildland fire outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center show a higher-than-normal risk of wildfire activity in parts of Northern California this summer.
“Heat waves and dry conditions can exacerbate fire and fuels conditions across the state,” Carpenter said.
This story was originally published April 23, 2026 at 5:00 AM with the headline "Will California have a cool summer or hotter-than-normal temps? See 2026 forecast."
