New poll shows how California voters feel about Prop. 50, campaigns’ messaging

A new poll of Californians likely to vote in the Nov. 4 special election shows the majority support Proposition 50, the state’s redistricting measure.

Fifty-four percent said they support the measure, compared to 36% who oppose it. One in ten who were polled said they were unsure how they would vote.

Prop. 50 asks voters whether California should redraw its congressional map to improve Democrats’ chances in time for the 2026 midterm elections. The proposal was put on the ballot in response to Texas gerrymandering its map this summer to benefit Republicans in the House of Representatives.

The new poll, conducted by the research firm co/efficient, polled nearly 1,000 likely voters through text and phone calls between September 29 and October 1.

The firm also tested out some of the messaging that’s been circulating in ads since the Legislature approved Prop. 50’s special election. It looked at how likely voters were swayed by “No on Prop. 50” arguments that the proposition is anti-democratic, expensive and sets a dangerous precedent versus “Yes on Prop. 50” arguments that it preserves democracy, pushes back against Trump and is supported by Gov. Gavin Newsom and Barack Obama.

Voters seemed to be more influenced by the “Yes” arguments than the “No” ones in the poll — they were 47% to 57% more likely to vote for the measure after hearing affirmative arguments, and only 37% to 44% less likely to vote for it after hearing the opposing side, according to pollsters.

The Secretary of State’s Cal-Access website shows over $131 million has been spent on campaigning for the measure.

This story was originally published October 7, 2025 at 1:16 PM.