Will California get heavy rain this winter? Here’s the latest outlook from forecasters
After a long summer of relentless heat waves, winter weather is finally on the horizon for California.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its U.S. Winter Outlook on Oct. 17, with its Climate Prediction Center anticipating a gradually developing La Niña weather pattern to shape winter conditions across much of the country — including California.
“This winter, an emerging La Niña is anticipated to influence upcoming weather patterns, particularly in terms of precipitation,” said Jon Gottschalck, chief of the Operational Prediction Branch at the Climate Prediction Center.
For California, this could mean notable La Niña conditions from December through February.
Here’s what that means for California weather this winter:
What is La Niña?
La Niña, which occurs every three to five years on average, is part of a cycle of Pacific Ocean climate patterns, including its counterpart El Niño.
These patterns have significant impacts on weather, wildfires, ecosystems and economies around the globe, according to the National Weather Service.
During La Niña, trade winds strengthen, while during El Niño, weaker winds allow warm water to move closer to the West Coast.
What’s the weather forecast for winter 2024 in California?
The NOAA’s winter forecast predicts wetter-than-average conditions across the northern part of the country, with especially high precipitation expected in the Pacific Northwest.
However, southern regions, including parts of California, may experience drier-than-average conditions.
Overall, the outlook shows California has “equal chances” of above or below-average temperatures.
Southern California has about a 30% likelihood of warmer-than-average winter temperatures.
How much rain will California get this winter?
Most of California has “equal chances of below-average, near-average or above-average seasonal total precipitation,” the weather agency said.
Southern California has about a 30% chance of seeing below-normal precipitation levels.
“Unfortunately, after a brief period in the spring of 2024 with minimal drought conditions across the country, more than a quarter of the land mass in the continental U.S. is currently in at least a moderate drought,” Brad Pugh, an operational drought lead with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, said.
“The winter precipitation outlook does not bode well for widespread relief,” Pugh added.
This story was originally published November 1, 2024 at 5:00 AM with the headline "Will California get heavy rain this winter? Here’s the latest outlook from forecasters."
