Republicans view rising prices as Democrats’ failure. Will it help election chances?
Republicans believe the latest grim news about higher prices is fresh, stark evidence that Democrats are presiding over a deeply troubled economy..
The promise to ease inflation is the GOP’s “most compelling message,” said Jacob Rubashkin, reporter and analyst for Inside Elections, a nonpartisan organization that tracks congressional races.
At the same time, though, Rubashkin cautioned that the state of the economy already is “pretty baked” into voters’ psyches. Therefore, a dose or two of disturbing data is not likely to suddenly change a candidate’s fortunes.
Furthermore, Kyle Kondik, managing editor of the nonpartisan Sabato’s Crystal Ball, said that people tend to judge the economy by what’s in front of them. And what they see most are gasoline prices..
“I think the trajectory of gas prices, rightly or wrongly, is probably the most obvious indicator of inflation to many,” he said. “The trajectory has been good for Democrats, even as gas prices remain markedly higher out west than in the rest of the country.”
.Republicans nevertheless see the latest news as continuing evidence that Democrats have let the economy rage out of control.
“Inflation and concerns about the economy dominate conversations I have on the campaign trail,” said Assemblyman Kevin Kiley, the Republican candidate for the state’s 3rd District congressional seat — a redrawn district that stretches from Folsom and Placer County all the way down to Inyo County.
“Voters are worried ,” he said, “and are unhappy with the President and Congress going on a massive tax and spending spree with inflation raging.” .
Democrats, struggling to maintain control of the House and Senate in the upcoming elections, counter that the economy is trending in their favor.
Look at the bigger picture, said Rep. John Garamendi, D-Walnut Grove, who represents the current 3rd District, which includes Yuba and Sutter counties and portions of Sacramento and Yolo counties. While inflation is certainly an issue, he said, “that is a very narrow definition of the economy.” He cited the state’s economic growth and robust job growth..
“We’re trying to ensure that the economy remains strong, that we’re investing in infrastructure and transportation and water and broadband,” said Rep. Jim Costa, D-Fresno. The Democratic-run Congress passed a $1 trillion bill last year, with some Republican support, to help rebuild the nation’s infrastructure.
Polls and prices
Polls routinely reflect that inflation and the economy is the number one issue on people’s minds.
A Public Policy Institute of California survey earlier this month found jobs, the economy and inflation were by far the top issue.
“An overwhelming majority of Californians continue to say they are experiencing financial hardship due to rising prices,” the poll found.
The latest economic news would appear to halt what Democrats saw as potential for momentum. Gasoline prices nationwide were way down. Consumer confidence was up. Economic experts saw price increases ebbing. The stock market was slowly improving.
But the government’s latest price report, issued last week, proved to be a jolt. Gasoline prices did plunge nationwide, but food prices had jumped 11.4% over the year. Overall, prices had risen at a still-high 8.3% since last August. The news sent the stock market reeling.
And with fresh evidence that the threat of higher prices remains, the Federal Reserve next week is expected to again boost key interest rates.
The inflation debate is likely to drive some key House races in California — races that are crucial in the battle to control the chamber. .
Can Republicans gain?
Republicans need a net gain of five seats to win the House majority, and are seen by nonpartisan analysts as a good bet to pick up 12 to 30 seats. They need to gain one seat in the Senate, which is now split 50-50.
California’s House delegation has 11 Republicans and 42 Democrats. The state is losing one seat this year because of reapportionment based on population. Inside Elections has two of the Republican seats — the one Kiley is seeking and one held by Orange County Rep. Young Kim — as likely Republican.
Seats now held by Reps. David Valadao, R-Hanford, and Mike Garcia, R-Santa Clarita, are rated tossups, and Orange County Rep. Michelle Steel’s race is seen as leaning Republican. Other GOP incumbents are seen as “solid Republican.”
Most Democratic-held seats are rated as solidly Democratic. The open seat in the redrawn 13th District, which includes Modesto and Merced, is viewed by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report as a toss-up, while three seats are rated “lean Democratic,” including the seat sought by Rep. Josh Harder, D-Turlock. Inside Elections says Harder is a likely winner.
Republicans will keep blasting away at the inflation news.
“The fact that the latest disappointing inflation numbers coincided with President Biden and California Democrats ‘celebrating’ their disastrous inflation legislation on the South Lawn reminds voters that Democrats still don’t get it. Californians are looking for solutions, not out-of-touch victory laps,” said Jessica Millan Patterson, California Republican Chairwoman.
Democrats insist the inflation news is not a momentum-killer.
“It doesn’t surprise me that Republicans are jumping on top of this. It’s the only leg they have to stand on, and it’s a pretty weak one,” said California Democratic Chairman Rusty Hicks. Stressing inflation, he said, is a “distraction from all the other problems they got, which voters are paying attention to.”
Those include controversies involving former President Donald Trump and the June Supreme Court decision that removed the Constitutional right to an abortion.
Chances are there is unlikely to be any radical shift in the voter mood right away because of a new inflation report, Rubashkin said, especially with the unemployment rate low.
But inflation is on people’s minds. And, he said, it remains “something voters care about a lot.”
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This story was originally published September 19, 2022 at 5:00 AM with the headline "Republicans view rising prices as Democrats’ failure. Will it help election chances?."
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