California voters poised to add abortion rights to state constitution, new poll finds

Editor’s Note: After publishing this story, The Bee learned that it includes unattributed passages from the Los Angeles Times story “Proposal to put abortion protections in California Constitution appears headed for victory.” This is a journalistic breach and a violation of our standards. We apologize to our readers and to the Los Angeles Times.

A ballot measure to amend the state Constitution to include abortion and contraception as fundamental rights appears likely to pass this November, as the Supreme Court’s overturn of Roe vs. Wade persists in the mind of voters nationwide.

A poll released Wednesday by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies found that 71% of over 9,000 registered voters support Proposition 1. A majority also support other policies protecting abortion rights.

Two in three Californians expressed concern about the court reconsidering rulings that protect contraception, same-sex marriage and other rights. By nearly the same margin, voters support laws recently passed in the legislature and signed by Gov. Gavin Newsom to assist women from other states traveling to California to seek abortions.

The proposed amendment has been criticized as unnecessary in a state that already has strong abortion protections on its books, and for the risks inherent in placing anything on the ballot. Numbers like this effectively put those concerns to bed, said IGS co-director Eric Schickler.

“There’s a tendency for people to vote no on ballot propositions, so there’s always some risk. But when you have something like this polling that shows such a wide margin, I think that risk is pretty unlikely in this case,” said Schickler. “It would be really surprising at this point if it didn’t pass.”

With support for Proposition 1 varying little across race or geography, ideological lines proved to be the main fissure. A whopping 89% of Democratic voters support the measure. Only 35% of Republicans, who comprise less than a quarter of registered voters in the state, favor the amendment.

The poll, conducted between Aug. 9 and Aug. 15, asked 9,254 registered California voters about their preferences. It was sponsored in part by the Los Angeles Times and has an estimated margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.

Proposition 1 asks voters to permanently protect a person’s right to an abortion in California by adding it in the state Constitution. A vote in the Democratic-controlled legislature placed the measure on the ballot after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned the 1973 ruling that gave women the legal right to choose abortion nationwide.

Abortion rights in California are protected by decades of case law and statutes. But supporters of the measure say the Supreme Court’s actions make explicit reference to abortion in the state Constitution necessary.

Strong convictions

If passed by voters in November, the constitution will be changed to grant anyone of reproductive age “the fundamental right to choose to bear a child or to choose and to obtain an abortion their fundamental right to choose or refuse contraceptives.”

A California law passed in 2009 allows a woman to have an abortion until viability, or when a physician determines “there is a reasonable likelihood of the fetus’ sustained survival outside the uterus without the application of extraordinary medical measures.” Or, if it is necessary to “protect the life or health of the woman.” Doctors generally consider a fetus viable after 24 weeks of pregnancy.

The poll found eight in 10 voters called abortion an important issue as they decide how to vote in congressional, state and local races this November, with 63% describing the issue as “very important.” Two-thirds of voters said they disapproved of the Supreme Court’s ruling to overturn Roe vs. Wade and return abortion decisions to states, a sentiment strongly shaped by ideology or party affiliation.

Voters’ strong convictions on abortion rights appear likely to bolster Democrats in California this November, where several closely contested congressional races are on the ballot. Among those who described themselves as very liberal, 95% said they strongly disapproved of the high court’s decision. Just 10% of those who said they were very conservative disapproved.

The numbers indicate abortion is a political priority for voters heading into this election irrespective of geography and race, or even political ideology, said IGS co-director Eric Schickler. Despite divisions on Proposition 1, six in ten Republican respondents said abortion is an “important” issue.

“You don’t want to talk about issues where your party base wants one thing, but a clear majority of the overall electorate wants something else. I think that’s the case for Republicans with abortion in California,” said Schickler.

In the wake of the Supreme Court’s ruling, California lawmakers introduced a stack of bills and added $200 million in the budget to increase access to abortions in the state, including for those traveling into California from states that have recently restricted abortion access.

Among those polled, 65% of Californians said they supported new laws that would help women from other states obtain an abortion in their state. Less than a quarter of Republicans supported the legislation, with 70% saying they do not support new laws helping women from out of state obtain an abortion in California.

This story was originally published August 24, 2022 at 2:00 PM with the headline "California voters poised to add abortion rights to state constitution, new poll finds."