California primary challengers facing an uphill battle against incumbents, poll shows
Challengers taking on incumbents in Tuesday’s California primary are struggling to put dents in the commanding leads that officeholders appear to enjoy, a new poll shows.
Gov. Gavin Newsom, Attorney General Rob Bonta and U.S. Sen. Alex Padilla all lead their races by significant margins, according to a poll from the Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies and the Los Angeles Times.
The survey asked 5,210 registered California voters — 3,438 who said they were likely to vote in the primary — about their candidate preferences. It has a sampling error of two percentage points. The poll oversampled Los Angeles voters, but survey administrators weighted results to “realign the Los Angeles City sample to its actual share of the statewide voter population.”
Voters on Tuesday will narrow races down to two candidates — regardless of party — who will advance to the November general election. So far, incumbents will have no problem getting to the next round, while challengers who win the second spots will need to make up a lot of ground before the fall.
In the gubernatorial race, Newsom has support from 50% of all likely voters, including 83% of Democrats and 46% of those who have no party preference. Only about 10% of likely voters plan to cast ballots for State Sen. Brian Dahle, R-Bieber, Newsom’s closest opponent.
Dahle has support from 26% of Republicans and 8% of no party preference voters.
Newsom appointee Bonta is leading his first statewide race with 46% of likely voters. The governor tapped Bonta in 2021 to replace Xavier Becerra, who became President Joe Biden’s Health and Human Services secretary.
Republican Eric Early is Bonta’s closest competitor with 16% of likely voters, including 39% of Republicans. Nathan Hochman, another Republican, isn’t far behind with support from 12% of voters and 30% of Republicans.
Sacramento County District Attorney Anne Marie Schubert, a no party preference candidate, trails the two Republicans with 6% of likely voters.
Padilla, another Newsom appointee, is running in two primary races — one to finish out the remainder of Vice President Kamala Harris’s six-year term, and another to win a full term of his own.
The poll shows he’s leading both races by a large margin. Padilla has support from 44% of likely voters for the partial term and 42% for the full term election. This includes 72% of Democrats in the partial term election and 70% for the full six years.
Republican attorney Mark Meuser, Padilla’s closest opponent, has the support of 14% of likely voters in the partial term contest and 11% in the full term race. Unsurprisingly, more Republicans plan to vote for Meuser, with 38% saying they prefer him in the partial term election and 29% for a full term election.
“In the aftermath of last year’s recall election, the statewide primaries this year have not galvanized voters’ attention,” said Eric Schickler, Berkeley IGS co-director, in a statement.
“The incumbents are running well ahead of their challengers,” Schickler added. “The main question is who will come in second under the top-two system, and whether the runner-ups in June will be able to gain more traction by November.”
This story was originally published June 3, 2022 at 12:47 PM with the headline "California primary challengers facing an uphill battle against incumbents, poll shows."