Republican challenging Gavin Newsom faces an uphill battle and a $25 million war chest

Brian Dahle stood before a crowd of supporters in Redding on Tuesday and said he wants to win back California from the “corruption” of one-party rule under Gov. Gavin Newsom.

“I love California, this amazing, beautiful state that used to be the land of opportunity,” he said. “But its leadership is so poor that people are running for the state line...trust me, if you get four more years of this dictator, it will cost you a lot more.”

To win the governorship, Dahle will have to oust a Democratic incumbent who is fresh off beating a recall attempt, has half the registered voters on his side and $25 million in his campaign account.

The governor faces criticism for the state’s homeless problem, rising crime rates, and unpopular COVID-19 mandates, but ultimately is still a formidable foe for a Republican who has never run a statewide race.

“It would be a stunning upset,” if Dahle won, said Republican political consultant Rob Stutzman. “It’s hard to imagine a scenario where (Newsom) doesn’t win reelection. At a minimum, the opponent would have to be very well-funded.”

By challenging Newsom, Dahle is taking a path other California Republicans have opted to avoid. Most notably, recall frontrunner Larry Elder, a longtime radio show host with widespread support among conservatives, declined to run against Newsom this year.

Dahle, 56, served in the Assembly between 2012 and 2019 before winning a special election to the state Senate. Prior to serving in the Legislature, he was a Lassen County supervisor. He lives in Bieber and is a farmer and small business owner.

Stutzman said Dahle is a “serious lawmaker,” unlike Elder, and is well-regarded as someone who understands the importance of policy-making.

But it’s still too early to tell if he’ll earn the support of voters or the California Republican Party. Many are watching to see if former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer, a moderate Republican who also ran in the recall, will launch a bid in 2022.

Even if Dahle doesn’t win, a run at the governor’s office could boost his name recognition in California and around the country. The money and attention he earns from a gubernatorial campaign, even a failed one, could help in future races.

Assemblyman Kevin Kiley, R-Rocklin, won just 3.5% of votes while running to replace Newsom in the recall last year, but was especially popular during the recall in the northern parts of the state where he lives. Now, he’s running in California’s 3rd Congressional District, which covers Plumas, Sierra, Nevada, Yuba, Placer, El Dorado, Alpine and Inyo Counties.

“There’s no question you can build a fundraising network and you can build your name ID,” Stutzman said. “But if you care about trying to bring the Republican Party back in this state, it requires leadership. Whoever ends up being in the run-off with Newsom has an important role to play in that future, and it could be that that’s appealing to (Dahle).”

Jon Fleischman, former executive director of the California Republican Party, said the state senator will need to make the case that single-party rule in California has been devastating to the economy.

He’ll also need to raise a lot of money.

“Any Republican that announces for governor after Newsom pretty convincingly beat back the recall is running an uphill battle,” Fleischman said. “But whether or not his candidacy can ultimately be viable is going to depend on whether or not there’s an appetite from people out there to fund this effort.”

Nathan Click, a spokesman for the governor’s campaign, said Dahle’s announcement shows a “sad state of affairs for the California Republican Party.”

“They are trying to pass off the same milque-Trump-toast that Californians soundly rejected last year,” Click said in a statement.

This story was originally published February 8, 2022 at 12:19 PM with the headline "Republican challenging Gavin Newsom faces an uphill battle and a $25 million war chest."