California’s new election maps favor Democrats, but these 3 House races could go either way
Three California congressional races could swing easily for either a Republican or Democrat next year, according to initial analyses by experts.
Each of the races has a Republican incumbent. California’s new congressional maps favored Democrats in redistricting and put five Republicans in more vulnerable positions, experts said.
The Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball and Inside Elections are a few nonpartisan organizations which designate elections as a “toss-up” or rate districts on a diminishing scale from “solid” to “likely” to “lean” in favor of a particular party in impending elections. The reports’ editors released updated ratings following the end of California’s redistricting process, the once-a-decade reformation of legislative boundaries.
They all agreed on which races were tossups.
California lost a seat in the U.S. House due to slow population growth over the last decade, dropping its delegation to 52 representatives. The commission charged with making new maps absorbed a Democratic district near Los Angeles, where population growth was particularly sluggish.
The state has 11 Republicans in its House delegation, though Rep. Devin Nunes, R-Tulare, left his seat this month to lead former President Donald Trump’s social media venture.
Experts said that it’s possible the GOP holds on to 11 seats despite the advantages Democrats gained in redistricting. The president’s political party typically loses House seats in midterm elections.
These three elections are among a handful in California that could determine whether Republicans or Democrats have control of the House in 2022. Republicans need to gain five seats in order to win control.
San Joaquin Valley battleground
Incumbent: Rep. David Valadao, R-Hanford
The likely incumbent in California’s new 22nd Congressional District, Valadao, is no stranger to close elections: He lost his seat to Democratic challenger TJ Cox in 2018, then regained it in 2020.
Valadao has not publicly confirmed whether he is seeking re-election in this district, which includes Hanford and stretches through Delano into Shafter.
Valadao’s old district voted for Biden in the last presidential election with an 11% margin. The new district would have voted for Biden by a 13% margin.
The dairy farmer has represented the Hispanic-majority area for the better part of the last eight years, positioning himself as a moderate Republican.
“It seems like every two years for the past decade people have been calling me about whatever seat David Valadao is going to run in, trying to get me to say, ‘he is surely gonna lose this time.’ He keeps making it. He’s an amazing candidate,” said Matt Rexroad, a Republican consultant and redistricting expert.
Valadao faces a slew of Democratic and Republican challengers if he runs in the 22nd district. Among them are Democratic Assemblyman Rudy Salas, who has garnered a lot of local endorsements since announcing his campaign; Delano Mayor Bryan Osorio, a Democrat; and businessman Chris Mathys, a Republican.
Los Angeles suburbs
Incumbent: Rep. Mike Garcia, R-Santa Clarita
Garcia lost right-leaning Simi Valley through when California’s redistricting commission shaped his 27th Congressional District for next year’s election. It settled his district right above Los Angeles.
Instead of running in a district that went to Biden by a margin of 10 percentage points, Garcia finds himself in a district that went to the president by 12.
While the change is minor, Garcia barely won his election in 2020, besting former Democratic Assemblywoman Christy Smith by 333 votes. Smith announced her intent to run again in the 27th district.
Garcia slipped past Smith for the first time in a special election earlier in 2020 to fill the seat vacated by former Rep. Katie Hill, a Democrat, marking the first time a Republican flipped a Democratic congressional seat in California since 1998.
Along with Smith, Garcia goes head-to-head with Quaye Quartey, a Democrat who gained the endorsement of the Congressional Black Caucus PAC, in 2022. And he should also face Democratic challengers who previously announced their intent to run against him, including Simi Valley Councilwoman Ruth Luevanos, Christopher Bellingham, Rhoda Nazanin and Dara Stransky.
Orange County
Incumbent: Rep. Michelle Park Steel, R-Seal Beach
Steel was forced into an inland district that does not hold Seal Beach. It hangs onto parts of her old district in the south, including Westminster, Garden Grove, Fountain Valley and Midway City, but sheds Huntington Beach and the coast through Laguna Niguel.
Rep. Katie Porter, D-Irvine, will run in the new Huntington Beach district.
Steel’s new district reaches up in a crescent shape through Cypress and into parts of Fullerton. It contains much of Little Saigon, where Steel found a lot of support in 2020; Asian Americans are the largest voting-age ethnic group in the district.
“Although the district lines have changed, my mission has not,” Steel said in a release announcing her re-election bid. “I have spent my entire career as a public servant fighting to protect California taxpayers, to lower crime rates, and to hold government accountable when it fails the people, and I will continue to do that work.”
Steel ousted Democratic Rep. Harley Rouda from his seat in 2020. Rouda recently suspended his 2022 campaign.
This year, Steel faces Democratic challenger Jay Chen, a small business owner and naval reservist who racked up dozens of federal, state and local endorsements.
This story was originally published January 5, 2022 at 5:00 AM with the headline "California’s new election maps favor Democrats, but these 3 House races could go either way."
