Love bacon? Here’s why you’ll soon pay more for it in California

Californians love their bacon.

The Golden State accounts for 13% of the nation’s pork consumption, according to the California Pork Producers Association. But that appetite for pork is likely to get more expensive.

Economists and pork industry insiders say that California consumers can expect the price of bacon, sausage and other pork products to go up in the new year as a provision of a 2018 ballot initiative takes effect.

How did we get here?

In 2018, California voters approved of a ballot initiative, Proposition 12, that was aimed at creating more humane conditions for pigs and chickens at concentrated animal feeding operations, sometimes referred to as factory farms.

The ballot measure was supported by groups such as the Humane Society of the United States and the American Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals, and also had a prominent supporter in daytime television talkshow host Ellen DeGeneres.

The ballot measure ultimately passed with nearly 63% of the vote.

One of the provisions of the initiative, set to go into effect Jan. 1, requires that breeding pigs be able to stand up, lie down, turn around, extend their limbs and have 24 square feet of space to move around in.

“This is such basic common sense minimum standards for animals, for animals to be able to stand up,” said Josh Balk, with the Humane Society of the United States.

The law survived multiple legal challenges, though it faces one more.

Trade groups representing restaurants, retailers, grocery stores and a pork processor have filed a lawsuit to delay implementation of the law, arguing that the California Department of Food and Agriculture has yet to finalize the necesssary regulations.

Demand outstrips supply

If the law is allowed to go into effect, Californians can expect to see the price of pork go up in 2022, though perhaps not right away.

The law doesn’t apply to pigs born prior to Jan. 1, meaning that there will still be plenty of pork coming into the California market that doesn’t have to be Prop. 12-compliant, said Michael Formica, with the National Pork Producers Council.

““For all intents and purposes, from CDFA enforcement, there will still be that supply of pork,” Formica said. “As you get into the year, there is going to be less and less pork available.”

That’s because California’s appetite for pork far outstrips its own supply.

Formica said California is home to perhaps 8,000 breeding pigs, while it takes about 600,000 pigs to meet the demand.

In March 2021, Rabobank released a report predicting that Proposition 12 would have a major impact on the pork supply chain for the state. The report found that less than 4% of U.S. breeding pig housing meets the standard set by Proposition 12. Rabobank predicted in the report that a shortfall in compliant pork would split the U.S. market, leaving California with less available, higher cost pork while generating a surplus of pork for the rest of the country.

“If you’re a California consumer, you’ve got a finite supply of pork that’s going to come in and serve your market,” Formica said.

‘There’s always a tradeoff’

Rabobank’s economists aren’t the only ones predicting a rise in pork prices.

Sung Won Sohn, a professor of finance and economics at Loyola Marymount University, said that while the goal of Proposition 12 is laudable, “there’s always a tradeoff. You can’t have cake and eat it too.”

Sohn said that prices could go up sooner than people think, and as a result, economic theory would indicate that “people are going to look for alternative sources of protein.”

“There’s always an economic cost that we have to pay for, and unfortunately many regulations are passed without regard to the cost for consumers and to the state,” Sohn said.

Sohn said that the cost of living, already high in California, is going to go up again for people who rely on pork in their diet.

“All these things would indicate that living in California is not only expensive,but it’s becoming more expensive,” he said.

Is the industry ‘crying wolf?’

The Humane Society’s Josh Balk challenged the assertion that Proposition 12 will lead to higher pork prices.

“The apocalyptic predictions of what will happen if a mother pig is able to turn around in a factory farm defies both common sense, science and also basic decency on how animals ought to be treated,” Balk said.

Balk pointed to a pork industry trade journal, which in December published a post that said that the ballot measure “is not going to present a major disruption to pork distribution and pork pricing.”

That report also speculated that Proposition 12 will likely not be enforced until mid-summer 2022 at the earliest.

While pork industry advocates have argued that it will be costly for them to shift their infrastructure away from the sow stall model that Proposition 12 bans, Balk cited a 2007 Iowa State University study which found that it is actually cheaper for farms to house pigs in a “hoop barn” setting than it is to house them in confining crates.

Balk added that several major pork producers are already in compliance with Proposition 12, including Hormel Foods and Coleman Natural Foods.

“This is just a long pattern of industries crying wolf when an animal cruelty law comes into effect,” Balk said.

Effect of new law on pork producers

The new law’s focus on large pork producers means smaller producers – the farms of the farm-to-fork movement – and their customers won’t be too affected. Neither will Sacramento Bacon Fest in its 11th year of existence, organizer Brian Guido said.

The annual celebration of all things bacon sources pork bellies from Rancho Llano Seco, a sixth-generation family farm in Chico and favorite of many local chefs. Rancho Llano Seco pigs are raised in deep-bedded hoop barns and have consistent access to paddocks, and raised in accordance with Global Animal Partnership best practices without antibiotics or growth hormones.

“The new law is (meant) to change the habits of factory farms. The ranch that we work with has been in existence since the Spanish Land Grants and prides itself on its practices of raising animals humanely and producing a quality product over quantity,” Guido wrote in a Facebook message. “So in terms of how the law would (affect) what we do(,) we will be continuing to maintain our practices of sourcing the best ingredients from people who are local and raise their animals humanely.”

This story was originally published December 30, 2021 at 11:56 AM with the headline "Love bacon? Here’s why you’ll soon pay more for it in California."