A ‘wake up call’ for California Democrats: New poll shows voters split on recalling Newsom

With less than two months until decision day, Gov. Gavin Newsom is facing an almost evenly-split electorate in California’s recall election.

A new Berkeley IGS/Los Angeles Times poll released Tuesday shows that 47% of likely California voters support recalling Newsom, while 50% oppose removing the first-term Democrat.

The news signals a troubling shift for the governor after months of good political fortunes due, in part, to a robust state budget and declining COVID-19 cases. A May survey by the Public Policy Institute of California found 57% of voters would choose to keep Newsom in office.

In recent weeks, as cases of the Delta variant have risen across the Golden State, some public officials have proposed reinstating pandemic protections like mask mandates.

Newsom on Monday announced California state workers and health care employees must demonstrate proof of vaccination or else continue to wear masks and undergo regular COVID-19 testing.

The poll is a “wake up call” for Democratic voters, Newsom spokesman Nathan Click said in a statement.

Despite having the largest share of voters in the state and a supermajority in the capital, some polling suggests Democrats are not as motivated to vote in the recall as those who want the governor removed.

“In a normal election, this Republican recall wouldn’t have a snowball’s chance in Death Valley,” Click said. “Californians don’t want a Republican takeover of our state, but if Democrats don’t vote, that’s what could happen.“

When asked about the poll at a press conference in Fresno on Tuesday, Newsom said he is focused on increasing vaccines, addressing homelessness, the cost of housing, and improving the quality of life for California’s 40 million residents, “regardless of their political identification.”

“We’re going to defeat this partisan effort and we’re going to work hard to do the work that people sent us here to do,” the governor said.

Among the 46 candidates running to replace Newsom, conservative talk radio host Larry Elder is leading the pack, with a reported 18% of likely voters supporting him.

Former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer and businessman John Cox are both backed by 10% of likely voters. Republican Assemblyman Kevin Kiley, who has earned the endorsement of the original recall proponents, is supported by 5% of voters, according to the survey. Meanwhile, Caitlyn Jenner, the Olympian-turned-reality-TV-star and arguably the most famous of the candidates, is polling at just 3%.

Anne Dunsmore, campaign manager for Rescue California, one of the committees leading the recall effort, said the polling shows that Newsom’s strategy of painting the recall as power grab by Trump Republicans is not working. Dunsmore said she’s confident that the margin will only grow smaller as the election approaches.

“For sure it’s trending in our direction and that’s exactly where you want to be before the game starts,” she said.

Paul Mitchell, vice president of Political Data Inc., which provides voter information to campaigns, said polls like those from Berkeley IGS can be skewed by the motivation of participants.

But, he warned, elections also can be shaped voters’ enthusiasm.

“The reality is that voting is also prone to motivation bias. People who participate are the people who feel the most anxiety or are the most frustrated… and it’s very likely they’re going to want to lash out,” Mitchell said. “And so that should be very concerning to the governor’s team: that these numbers represent the impact of that very different motivation level among different voters in the electorate.”

This story was originally published July 27, 2021 at 10:28 AM with the headline "A ‘wake up call’ for California Democrats: New poll shows voters split on recalling Newsom."