Californians still going out despite stay-at-home orders, tracking data shows

California residents have not greatly reduced their visits to stores and workplaces since Gov. Gavin Newsom ordered them to stay at home in early December, according to a Sacramento Bee review of mobility trend data collected by Google from cell phones.

At the start of the pandemic, when Newsom issued a sweeping stay-at-home order in March, visits to California stores and restaurants plummeted, falling more than 50% by mid-April as compared to a January baseline.

As those orders were relaxed, visits to stores and restaurants remained lower — just not as low as during the first shutdown. Compared to a January baseline, visits to stores and restaurants were consistently between 25% and 30% lower from June through November.

In early December, as infections skyrocketed and hospital ICU capacity fell sharply, Newsom ordered a shutdown across most of the state that closed outdoor dining, and forced barbers and salons to shut their doors. He required retail outlets to limit customers to 20% capacity at a time. And he asked residents to remain at home except to go to essential jobs or to do basic chores.

Yet the new orders do not appear to have immediately changed mobility patterns that much.

From Dec. 12 through Dec. 18, visits to California stores and restaurants were down an average of 31% compared to a January baseline. That’s only slightly different than the 27% decline in visits during the same week a month earlier — before the severe shutdown — and well short of the decline in visits seen during April.

Visits to grocery stores and pharmacies were down about 12% from Dec. 12 through Dec. 18 as compared to a January baseline. They were down about the same amount a month earlier, showing little change with the new stay-at-home orders.

From Dec. 12 through Dec. 18, visits to California workplaces were down an average of 36% as compared to a January baseline. A month earlier, they were down about 32%. Visits to workplaces hit their lowest point in early April, when they were down more than 50% from a January baseline, Google mobility data show.

Phone tracking data alone isn’t enough to say whether Newsom’s stay-at-home order has been effective, especially because it doesn’t track mixing among different households, said Dr. Brad Pollock, associate dean for Public Health Sciences at the UC Davis School of Medicine.

Pollock noted that Newsom’s stay-at-home orders are much less strict than lockdown orders in other countries, making it unlikely to cause a dramatic change overnight.

It will take a few weeks before experts will be able to tell if Newsom’s orders successfully curb transmission based on case rates and hospitalizations, Pollock said. In the meantime, he said the numbers illustrate a pandemic fatigue many people are feeling after months of restrictions.

“People are exhausted,” he said. “I think people are just going nuts just not having the social connection.”

Statewide, there were about 30,000 new COVID-19 cases on Dec. 5, when the shutdown order took effect across much of the state. That number climbed to nearly 54,000 new cases on Dec. 15. It has generally declined the past few days and stood at around 33,000 new cases reported on Dec. 21.

Tracking outdoor activities and home visits

Google also tracks visits to parks and transit stations, along with mobility around private residences.

Visits to transit stations statewide were down about 49% from Dec. 12 through 18 compared to a January baseline. Those types of visits were down by about 44% a month earlier and by nearly 60% in early April.

Visits to parks and other outdoor recreation sites have fluctuated during the pandemic, partially due to the weather. Such visits statewide were down about 31% from Dec. 12 through 18 compared to a January baseline. Those types of visits were down about 22% a month earlier. Such visits were higher than the January baseline for much of the summer. Health officials have deemed outdoor activities like hiking relatively safe compared to most indoor recreation.

Mobility around private residences statewide was up about 14% from Dec. 12 through 18 compared to a January baseline. Those types of visits were up by about 12% a month earlier and up by 23% in April.

Google is not the only company tracking mobility trends. Similar data from Apple shows a slight decline in vehicle traffic statewide over the last month — but much more traffic than during the April shutdown. Apple does not categorize travel by purpose.

Tracking firm Unacast shows a modest decline statewide in “average mobility” and “non-essential visits” during the last few weeks — but not as large a decline as occurred in early April.

How Sacramento region is doing

A similar mobility pattern has played out in Sacramento County, which Newsom ordered to stay at home on Dec. 10.

From Dec. 12 through Dec. 18, visits to stores and restaurants were down 32% compared to a January baseline. That’s slightly lower than the 29% decline seen during the same week a month earlier but well short of the declines seen during April.

Visits to grocery stores and pharmacies were down about 10% from Dec. 12 through Dec. 18 as compared to a January baseline. They were down the same amount a month earlier.

From Dec. 12 through Dec. 18, visits to Sacramento County workplaces were down 37% as compared to a January baseline. A month earlier, they were down 33%.

Visits to workplaces hit their lowest point in early April, when they were down nearly 50% from a January baseline, Google mobility data show.

This story was originally published December 23, 2020 at 5:00 AM with the headline "Californians still going out despite stay-at-home orders, tracking data shows."