These California counties at COVID-19 ‘tipping point’ as Thanksgiving nears, data show
Daily COVID-19 cases in around one-third of California’s counties have reached a “tipping point” before the Thanksgiving holiday, according to Harvard University data.
Researchers are mapping coronavirus risk by state and county by the seven-day average of new cases per 100,000 people. As of Wednesday, at least 17 of California’s 58 counties are in the “red” zone, with 25 or more cases per 100,000 people.
Harvard Global Health Institute released a map that uses four colors to show the risk level in different counties: green, yellow, orange and red. Red means that it’s a “tipping point” and that stay-at-home orders are “necessary.”
Cases are currently surging. The state reported an average over two weeks of 4,300 daily cases as of Nov. 1, The Sacramento Bee reported. There is now an average of around 7,700 new cases every day and California’s Department of Public Health confirmed 9,811 new cases Wednesday — the highest two-week average since Aug. 22.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom said Monday that he and other state officials were pulling an “emergency brake” by cutting back on opening businesses to try to stop the surge of cases before they overwhelm hospitals, according to The Sacramento Bee. Experts have pointed to private gatherings in which people have relaxed social distancing and face covering measures.
County breakdown
Alpine County and Lassen County in Northern California have among the highest per capita case rate as of Nov. 18, according to the risk level dashboard. The rates were 291 and 157.9 daily new cases per 100,000 people, respectively.
Mono County in Central California also has a high per capita rate, with 145.4 cases per 100,000 people as of Nov. 18.
Kings County has 79.5 cases per 100,000 people while Fresno County right above it has 28.9 new daily cases per 100,000 people, Harvard researchers said.
Sacramento County is also in the “red” level with 25.4 cases per 100,000 people and at least 30,000 total cases as of Nov. 18.
Los Angeles County and San Bernardino County in Southern California are both at the “tipping point” with 26.6 cases and 39.7 per 100,000 people respectively.
But one county in the state, Plumas County, has managed to stay in the “green” level, averaging zero daily new cases per 100,000 people and 94 cases overall.
Thanksgiving risk
The Georgia Institute of Technology released a map that helps assess the risk of at least one person testing positive for COVID-19 at Thanksgiving. A gathering of 50 people in Mono and Lassen counties has a risk of 96% and 91% respectively.
The risk of a person testing positive at the same-size gathering in Sacramento County is 41%.
CDC experts have urged Americans to social distance and limit the number of people at their Thanksgiving celebrations in order to reduce the risk of spreading the virus.
There was a surge in coronavirus cases in Canada after Thanksgiving on Oct. 12, McClatchy News reported.
This story was originally published November 18, 2020 at 2:55 PM with the headline "These California counties at COVID-19 ‘tipping point’ as Thanksgiving nears, data show."