Tesla analysts get nervous heading into Q1 print
You wouldn't know it from CEO Elon Musk's racism-baiting posts on X (the former Twitter), but Tesla analysts at TD Cowen and Barclays have some serious concerns heading into the company's first-quarter earnings print.
Musk has been on the defensive since the company reported its preliminary Q1 results earlier this month, so he has resorted to cherry-picking facts about how Tesla, by itself, outperforms all other EV makers in the U.S.
This is true, of course, but what he's leaving out is that Tesla also reported global first-quarter production of 408,386 vehicles and deliveries of 358,023, well short of analyst expectations of 370,000 and its internal consensus estimate of 365,000.
It wasn't all bad news: Deliveries actually improved 6% year over year, but the increase is somewhat skewed, since 2025's Q1 total was 13% lower than 2024's. So the company's comps were favorable.
Tesla saw its revenue fall year over year for the first time ever in 2025. Last year was also the second consecutive year when deliveries fell. While the stock is doing relatively well given those headwinds, shares are still down more than 11% year to date (though they have been on a heater recently, rising nearly 14% over the past 5 sessions).
So when analysts at BNP Paribas said earlier this month that the stakes couldn't be higher for the company in 2026, it seemed like an astute call.
"Given Tesla's sizable cash burn this year ($7 billion estimate by BNPP) and indications for massive multi-year investments on the horizon tied to a TeraFab and 100 GW solar capacity, the ‘stakes' of TSLA's demonstrated robotaxi and Optimus progress could not be higher," BNP analysts said in a note earlier this month.
But BNP isn't the only firm sounding the alarm.
TD Cowen, Barclays turn more bearish on Tesla ahead of earnings
Tesla shares remained on a heater on Wednesday, April 15, climbing nearly 7.4% at last check in the early afternoon, despite two bearish analyst notes from TD Cowen and Barclays.
Barclays analysts maintained an equal-weight rating and $360 price target on the electric vehicle maker, representing a slight downside from the stock's $366.83 opening price.
"Barclays believes Terafab could cost in the mid-single digit trillion dollar range if fully built out. While Tesla's capex is unlikely to 'exponentially increase', a further step up from the elevated $20B figure Tesla talked to on the last earnings call is likely," contends Barclays, thefly.com reported.
Barclays analysts pin the recent stock selloff on a lack of guidance about the company's Robotaxi and Optimus progress. Tesla said earlier this year it was mothballing its Model S and Model X brands to focus on robotics and AI.
According to the firm, while the sell-off "could imply on the surface an opportunity for the stock to outperform" after the Q1 results are released. Barclays says it takes a "more tempered view into the print" as any suggestions of incremental capex spending "could be perceived negatively."
Meanwhile, analysts at TD Cowen remained bullish on the company, maintaining its buy rating, while lowering its price target to $490 from $519.
The firm agrees that the lack of news about progress on Robotaxi and Optimus has "dampened sentiment" heading into the Q1 print, it also sees Tesla as better positioned than suppliers to offer investors outlook "reassurances and retaining guidance credibility."
TD Cowen believes Tesla has a low risk of guiding down in the earnings call and sees a slightly positive setup for the stock heading into the earnings release on Wednesday, April 22.
Stakes for Tesla "could not be higher," say BNP Paribas analysts
Earlier this year, Tesla shared it was pulling the plug on the Model S and Model X and would replace that production capacity with Optimus humanoid robots as part of the company's plan to build 1 million of them per year.
That plan may worry investors, since there is currently no discernible market for humanoid robots, and selling 10,000 of them in a year would be impressive. But the vehicle models the company is getting rid of haven't sold, either, so it may be a wash in the end.
Still, analysts at BNP Paribas aren't taking this Tesla experiment lightly because the company is also spending a lot of money to make it happen.
According to BNP, the other models that combined delivered 16,000 vehicles in the quarter benefited from demand that was artificially inflated, so once again, moving off of them makes sense.
However, Musk has made some pretty big promises about what Optimus and Robotaxi can do, and the firm says it's time for Tesla to "put up or shut up" in 2026.
"We view 1Q26's deliveries - modestly below consensus - as yet another input to the TSLA stock's challenged setup for this year, with EGS storage deployments also meaningfully light," BNP analysts said.
"A critical factor to this year is the Co.'s progress rate in its active Robotaxi fleet, which is climbing yet still limited to just two cities. The core catalysts for TSLA center on its ability to show meaningful progress toward its AI-defined future, inclusive of Robotaxi fleet expansion (targeting seven new cities in 1H26) and commercialized production of Optimus by year-end."
If their analysis seems a bit dim, the firm is one of the few on Wall Street with a negative view of the stock.
BNP reiterated its underperform rating and $280 price target on Tesla shares, representing a potential 28% downside from the stock's current level.
Related: BNP Paribas warns stakes 'couldn't be higher' for Tesla stock investors
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This story was originally published April 15, 2026 at 3:03 PM.