JPMorgan sees resiliency in US economy despite Iran war

The war in Iran has boosted gas prices and created geopolitical turmoil, but it has not dented the profits of Wall Street’s biggest firms so far.

That was underscored Tuesday when a fresh set of banks and asset managers released quarterly results that, in some ways, benefited from market swings and the uncertainty in the Middle East.

JPMorgan earned $17 billion in profit in the first three months of the year, considerably more than analysts expected. Its investment bank, which makes money from corporate mergers, earned 28% more than it had a year earlier. And its trading desk earned more than ever from stocks, mirroring similarly heady results in that area from rival Goldman Sachs one day earlier.

Market volatility, a mainstay of war, tends to lead to more trading and thus higher profits for the banks involved in intermediating it.

Citi, which also saw big gains from its trading operations, earned more than $5 billion in the first quarter, the bank said Tuesday.

In a briefing for reporters, top JPMorgan executives expressed a modicum of surprise that the economy was holding up sturdily. They said they had debated saving up more of the bank’s cash for potential economic trouble that could cause customers to fall behind on loans and credit card payments but ultimately decided to hold the course.

Instead, the bank just slightly lowered its expectations for profits for the remainder of the year (it still expects to earn more than $100 billion).

“It is notable that the client sentiment, especially in the U.S., seems quite resilient considering the amount of uncertainty you have in the Middle East,” said Jeremy Barnum, the company’s chief financial officer.

Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, told reporters that the global risks going forward “are not minor.” He said higher energy costs could weigh on poorer Americans in particular but added that he also found reasons for optimism, highlighting the low unemployment rate overall.

“The most important thing is jobs, and there are plenty of jobs,” he said.

Wells Fargo earned $4.3 billion, up 7% from the first quarter of 2025. That bank’s revenue from mortgage lending dropped because of lower balances and fees, but new auto loans doubled from last year, rising to $9.7 billion. Its shares dipped in premarket trading as overall revenue came in slightly short of what had been projected.

Wells Fargo’s chief financial officer, Mike Santomassimo, said he detected “resiliency in the underlying economy.”

Wells Fargo has not seen “the overall spend level trends change, really, with any significance,” Santomassimo told reporters in a separate briefing.

IMF lowers global growth forecasts amid Middle East war

While U.S. financial giants see little concern, the International Monetary Fund expects global economic growth to be slightly weaker than previously forecast, warning that rising geopolitical tensions and energy disruptions are weighing on activity.

“Once again, the global economy is threatened with being thrown off course - this time by the outbreak of war in the Middle East at the end of February 2026,” the IMF said on Tuesday in its latest outlook.

Whereas last year it was “higher trade barriers and elevated uncertainty,” the IMF said - likely referring to President Donald Trump’s tariff policy - the current situation is being weighed down by the slump in the supply of raw materials resulting from the blockage of the vital Strait of Hormuz and the uncertainty caused by the war with Iran.

The fund revised down forecasts for many economies, noting that its projections assume the conflict remains limited and that economic disruptions ease by mid-2026.

The IMF now expects global growth of 3.1% in 2026, down from 3.3% forecast in January, and 3.2% in 2027. This would leave global growth below its long-term average.

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva had warned that even in a best-case scenario, there will be no quick return to pre-war growth levels, with expansion likely to remain structurally weaker.

Economic growth is therefore likely to stabilize at this new level in the medium term, and thus lie well below the average of 3.7% between 2000 and 2019.

The IMF chief also highlighted short-term risks of a surge in inflation as a result of the war. Expectations for inflation in the United States and the eurozone have already risen significantly.

“Fortunately, longer-run expectations have not budged - this is very good and very important,” Georgieva said.

Global headline inflation is expected to stand at 4.4% in 2026 and fall to 3.7% next year. This would place the figures well above the 2% target that many central banks have set themselves.

Georgieva does not yet see central banks such as the Federal Reserve or the European Central Bank under pressure to act.

The IMF now forecasts eurozone growth of 1.1% this year (January: 1.3%) and 1.2% in 2027, down from a previous estimate of 1.4%.

The fund also adopted a more cautious outlook for the U.S., projecting growth of 2.3% in 2026 (January: 2.4%). For 2027, growth is seen at 2.1%, slightly above the earlier forecast of 2%.

The New York Times and German press agency dpa contributed to this report.

Copyright 2026 The New York Times Company

This story was originally published April 14, 2026 at 10:05 AM.