Fresno County jobless rate dips to 7-year low

Fresno County’s official unemployment statistics continue to reflect slow but continuing recovery from economic recession, with June’s jobless rate falling to its lowest point since the fall of 2008.

Estimates released Friday by the state Employment Development Department reported Fresno County’s unemployment rate at 9.5%, down slightly from 9.7% in May and 1.4 percentage points lower than a year ago. It’s the lowest rate since September 2008, when the unemployment rate in the county was 9.4%.

The decline in the county’s unemployment rate coincides with the number of people who want work but cannot find it. That number reached its lowest point since April 2008. About 42,600 Fresno County residents were counted among the jobless last month — a far cry from the nearly 81,000 unemployed in January 2011, in the peak of the region’s economic woes.

In neighboring Valley counties, unemployment rates in June were down from May in Madera and Merced counties, unchanged in Kings County and up slightly in Tulare County. But all of the Valley counties were below where they were a year ago.

Between May and June, the largest gains in jobs in Fresno County were reported in manufacturing, including an increase of 1,100 jobs in food manufacturing that included fruit packing and processing. Farm employment also rose by about 600 jobs, swelling the ranks to about 58,700 as the region entered the peak of the harvest season for several key crops. The gains in farm jobs and food manufacturing reflect typical seasonal swings that see those sectors diminish in the winter months.

Friday’s figures confirm an economic analysis issued earlier this month by Ernie Goss, a research economist with the Craig School of Business at Fresno State. Goss prepares a monthly San Joaquin Valley Business Conditions Index based on a survey of purchasing executives at companies across Fresno, Kings, Madera and Tulare counties. A score of 50 on the index represents neutral growth prospects, while anything higher points to economic growth over the coming three to six months.

Goss said June was the 19th straight month in which the Valley index was above the growth-neutral 50, climbing from 55.0 in May to 58.3 in June. “That’s very healthy,” Goss said when he issued his report on July 1. “It may not sound like it, but that’s a very solid growth range.”

He added that the economic index for the Valley is growing faster than similar economic indicators for the nation as a whole. “We’re pointing to much more solid and healthy growth for the four-county San Joaquin Valley than we are for the U.S.,” Goss said, “and that’s very good for the businesses and the workers in the four-county area.”

Unemployment rates in the Valley reflect a historic trend of running well above both the state and national rates. California’s statewide unemployment rate was estimated at 6.3% in June, down slightly from 6.4% in May, while the nation’s rate ticked down from 5.5% in May to 5.3%. A year ago, California’s jobless rate was 7.5% and the U.S. rate was 6.1%.

Still, June was the 46th consecutive month in which the unemployment rate in Fresno County was lower than a year prior. And the falling rate comes as the size of the labor force remains near historic highs. According to the state estimates, the civilian labor force in the county — the number of people working, plus the number of people looking for work — was 450,300 last month, second only to the all-time high of 451,500 in May.

On a statewide level, the addition of almost 23,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in June led the U.S. and represented more than 10% of the month-over-month employment growth in the nation. The increase in the state’s labor force was also seen to signal that more people — including so-called “discouraged workers” who gave up job searches after extended periods of unemployment — are re-entering the job market. The numbers, based on federal and state surveys of employers and households, don’t include people who aren’t looking for work, whether they are discouraged workers, students or retirees.

“It shows both growth in the labor force and people finding work,” said Kevin Callori, a spokesman for EDD.

What the employment statistics don’t show, however, is how many of the new jobs are full- or part-time.

At least one economic analyst said the state’s numbers represent a transition from recovery to expansion. “Not only is California adding jobs across most of its industries and regions, but that growth is outpacing the nation and most other states in the nation,” said Jordan Levine, director of economic research at Los Angeles-based Beacon Economics.

This story was originally published July 17, 2015 at 2:20 PM with the headline "Fresno County jobless rate dips to 7-year low."