Why are cancellations in the Boundary Waters on the rise? It's complicated.

MINNEAPOLIS - While the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness is considered a trip of a lifetime, recent data suggests planning a visit to the northern Minnesota destination is its own adventure.

This spring, wilderness managers reported that in 2025 more permits went unused than ever during the high-visitation quota season from May through September.

Cancellations hit a record 12,000-plus, the U.S. Forest Service reported, citing "excessive reservations." No-shows increased from 2024, too.

The hoarding can complicate trip planning, leading would-be visitors to scramble for permits when reservations open and then repeatedly check for coveted spots that become available through cancellations.

There are a number of factors driving the behavior, according to close observers. The Forest Service, several outfitters and others on the front lines have theories, both similar and distinct. Among them: a reservation system that enables excessive demand; a public, in general, prone to hyper-scheduling; and perhaps more relaxed attitudes today about wilderness travel.

The Forest Service is considering changes to the permitting and reservation structure that it expects to recommend this year. Adjustments, such as trying to lower the number of short-notice cancellations, could mean fewer permits go unused while also deterring no-shows.

"The overarching thing for me is a perceived scarcity [of permits]," said Clare Shirley, who with her husband, Dan, runs Sawbill Canoe Outfitters, north of Tofte.

The Boundary Waters averages about 150,000 visitors annually. Visitation spiked in 2021, during the COVID-19 pandemic, with more than 166,000. That year, there was an uptick in reports of reckless behavior, littering and campsite damage. The Forest Service responded by reducing the number of permits available for entry in 2022.

The combination of new paddlers introduced to the BWCA during the pandemic and a reduction in entries contributed to a perception that permits are hard to come by, Shirley said.

That placed even more pressure on an annual booking process that opens to the public on a morning in late January. It has become a race: Permits don't sell out, but high-demand dates and entry points are quickly nabbed online through a federal lands reservation website, recreation.gov. People also can call to reserve or work with an outfitter.

Shirley said many people are booking multiple possible dates - and later canceling the ones they don't use - because registration opens before other summer obligations have sorted out.

"They don't know their kids' baseball schedules," she said. "You know, that's understandable. I'm not saying that is bad behavior. I get why you do it."

The behavior isn't exclusive to the wilderness but rather a cultural shift across other activities, she added. "People are just more used to this being an issue in all corners of their life."

Shirley and Jason Zabokrtsky, who runs Ely Outfitting Co. in Ely, said rising cancellations also are driven by visitors who scrap their permits when a better one comes along. Newly available permits show up on recreation.gov within 24 hours of a cancellation.

"Canceled permits can spur more cancellations as people trade up and cancel a less desirable permit," Zabokrtsky said.

"We see that happen commonly, especially when we have a group at the shop getting outfitted, and we tell them about a different permit option."

That scenario is encouraging but does not represent many of the cancellations. Visitors still are reserving more than they intend to use, said Cathy Quinn, the Forest Service's assistant wilderness manager. Nearly 4,000 were canceled within four days of the entry date, limiting the likelihood another visitor will pick it up, she added.

Dave Seaton of Hungry Jack Outfitters off the Gunflint Trail out of Grand Marais said he thinks social changes are at play, too. Access to the BWCAW, broadly, is held in more casual regard by some of his younger customers than it is by older generations. Plus, he said, the public is more risk-averse.

"There are a lot of people using the Boundary Waters like a campground, not a wilderness adventure. That's a change in society," he said. "Many people are looking to relax and chill rather than have an adventure."

Seaton said a demand for wilderness adventure still exists - the visitors seeking those opportunities are just aiming for prime times and specific places that quickly become scarce in the current reservation paradigm.

"Every [baby] boomer who has ever held a canoe paddle in Minnesota still goes to the Boundary Waters, and at least 50 percent of kids who went to camps [like Menogyn, Widgiwagan and Northern Tier] still want to go to the wilderness," he said. "And now, so does everybody else. It's a mixed blessing on several fronts."

Possible solutions appear as mixed as the possible culprits.

Shirley is a member of a public work group in talks with the Forest Service about a potential fix. The team, made up of stakeholders like area outfitters and other business people, along with conservation groups and government representatives, is part of a larger collaborative.

Created by the Forest Service, the group connects with the agency on the management of the Superior National Forest, which contains the million-acre BWCAW. And, in the case of Shirley and the work group, offers recommendations.

A staggered rollout of reservations is one possibility, Shirley said.

Many on social media and internet forums favor another solution: Higher permit fees or stiffer penalties.

Currently, it costs $6 to make a reservation. In addition, entry permits cost $16 per adult and $8 for a child 17 and younger.

Permit-holders who cancel at least two days before their entry are refunded the permit cost. Those who cancel within a day of their entry are charged $32 as a penalty. The $6 reservation fee is nonrefundable. No-shows forfeit all payments.

However, the Forest Service, and even some outfitters, say it's not so easy to find an optimal cost. Increasing the fees risks making the wilderness less accessible to lower-income visitors.

Shirley said mitigating that risk is an "overarching goal."

"How do you get overnight paddle permits into the hands of people who are going to actually use them? And how do you do that in an equitable manner?" she said.

California state parks offer one example. Effective July 1, new fees and cancellation rules increase the cost of canceling close to a reservation date, a response to "ongoing high demand for campsites and concerns about reserved sites going unused," parks spokeswoman Jo Biswas said.

The change goes after no-shows, too. Visitors who don't appear three times in a calendar year are banned from making reservations for a year. Repeat BWCAW offenders are contacted and urged to cancel future permits, Quinn said.

Whatever is decided in Minnesota, an emphasis on educating the public clearly about the cascading effects of hoarding permits or skipping outright is paramount, Shirley said.

A collaborative-inspired proposal that includes a new cancellation policy is in the works and could get shared with the public for its feedback "in the coming months," Quinn said.

"Something needs to change," Shirley added. "I'm not particularly married to one solution or the other. I think it'll need to be a constellation of things. And, certainly ripe for public input."

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This story was originally published June 4, 2026 at 2:34 AM.