Why you should be worried about job security

Many economists and financial analysts seem puzzled by Americans’ uneasiness about business conditions.

Well, maybe it’s because these commentators don’t have to worry about their paychecks.

Take the latest widespread upbeat spin on the nation’s job market. April’s numbers – bosses added 115,000 workers, adjusted for seasonal swings – were seen by many economic gurus as a surprising increase amid a war with Iran and its resulting ballooning energy costs.

April’s jobs bump also was hailed for topping the gurus’ consensus estimate of job growth, a gap that might be more a critique of so-called “expert” analytical skills than of improved employment patterns.

Yet when my trusty spreadsheet reviewed 50 years’ worth of U.S. monthly employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, it found some anxiety-building trends.

Yes, three of the 2026’s first four months had job creation of more than 100,000. That’s modestly encouraging only because it followed an eight-month streak of fewer than 100,000 new jobs.

Those eight months were the longest period of monthly employment creation less than six figures since a 26-month drought that ended in February 2010 during the Great Recession.

When were other notable sub-100,000 job creation streaks in the past half-century?

There was the 21-month streak that ended in September 2002 – surrounding the 9/11 terror attacks and the dot-com stock collapse.

Also, an 11-month streak ended in March 1992 as the economy was digesting the other oil-price shock and a collapse in regional real estate, notably in California.

So, we’ve been in ugly job market territory. Consider recent job creation on a historical scale.

April’s 115,000 job creation was 7% off the 124,000-a-month average over the past 10 years; a period that included the pandemic workforce swings.

Or with a much longer-term lens, you see that April was 13% below the 50-year average of 132,400.

Skittish survey

These dour trends align with what economically skittish Americans told pollsters who create the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index.

The economic expectations score for 2026’s first four months was 17% below average.

One reason is 22% of people polled see a worse business climate ahead; well above the average 14% since 2000.

And jobs prospects? The poll found 27% expect fewer jobs versus 19% historically.

Unnerved employers

The feeble U.S. job creation spooking consumers is the byproduct of numerous factors.

For starters, the Trump administration’s unorthodox economic policies are unnerving some employers.

For example, President Donald Trump’s tariff policy has raised the prices of certain imported goods, posing challenges for employers who use or sell them. Then there’s Trump’s anti-immigration push that’s made staffing headaches even tougher in numerous industries.

And it’s more than the White House.

Do not overlook stubbornly high interest rates, which depress the work of businesses dependent on cheap financing.

Plus, the corporate adoption of artificial intelligence is beginning to trim certain employers’ need for workers.

Long-term laggard

Let’s agree that one month is no trend. So, we will ponder 12-month trends.

Think about how many jobs were created during the past year; the period following Trump’s April 2025 announcement of “Liberation Day” and the start of tariff battles with other nations.

American bosses added just 251,000 workers during the past 12 months.

How slow is that?

That’s just 17% of the 1.48 million-a-year pace of the past 10 years. It’s also 16% of the 1.59 million annual average, dating to 1976.

So, Americans have plenty of reasons to worry about their paychecks. The past year’s job creation was one-sixth of what’s normal.

Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com.

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