Bay Area air regulators split on whether to move forward with ban on gas water heaters that will cost homeowners $3,500

Leaving homeowners in limbo for months more on whether they will fact costly upgrades, a deeply divided Bay Area Air District board of directors on Wednesday decided to move forward with a final vote in October on sweeping - and increasingly controversial - rules that would ban the sale and installation of new natural gas water heaters in homes starting Jan. 1.

At a meeting in San Francisco, the directors, most of whom are elected city councilmembers, county supervisors and other local officials, weighed the air pollution benefits from requiring homeowners to replace traditional water heaters with electric heat pump models when they break or need to be replaced with the added costs in an era when polls show public concern over rising prices for food, housing, and gasoline is soaring.

The air district staff estimates it will cost an average of $3,500 more for homeowners to buy and install an electric heat pump water heater instead of a traditional gas-powered one.

The first-in-the-nation rule was approved by the air board in 2023, and is scheduled to be mandatory for all residents of the nine-county Bay Area in eight months.

A meeting last week to discuss possible changes to the rule lasted five hours. Environmental groups spoke in favor and real estate groups and homeowners opposed it.

On Wednesday, the board appeared sharply split.

“Look at the air now and how great the air quality is in our area,” said board member Tyrone Jue, the director of San Francisco’s Environment Department and a supporter of the rule. “None of that progress has ever been done through voluntary action alone.”

The rule does not ban gas stoves or other appliances. It would ban the installation of new gas furnaces by Jan. 1, 2029, however, in addition to the ban on gas-powered water heaters next year.

“I just think it’s the wrong time to do this,” said director Mark Salinas, who is the mayor of Hayward. “Everyone we talk to, what's the top of mind issue right now? It's affordability. Food, electricity, gas. It's affordability. Every candidate out there - local, state, federal, everyone - is talking about affordability, affordability, affordability.”

Salinas said he supported the goal of the rule, but wanted to pause the regulation for at least a year.

“Trust me I get it,” he said. “But we can’t be in front of our own constituents talking about affordability and then come here and then impose these mandates. We’re sending mixed messages.”

Because of rising concerns about the costs, the air district staff has suggested some changes. Those would delay the implementation of the rules until October 2027 to allow time for a public education campaign, provide a one-time exemption for low-income residents and a one-time exemption for people who would need significant, expensive upgrades to their electrical breaker panels or structural changes in their homes to comply. The details, including what level of income would qualify as low-income, have not yet been finalized.

A report from the air board’s staff concluded that water heaters and furnaces in the Bay Area generate 3,690 tons of nitrogen oxides a year, a key component of smog. That’s more than all passenger vehicles in the Bay Area, the agency says, which emit 3,464 tons a year.

Combined, the new regulations would prevent between 37 and 85 deaths a year and avoid 15,000 asthma attacks a year in the Bay Area, the staff has calculated.

A 2024 study by the air district found that it costs $3,575 on average to install a standard natural gas tank water heater in a single-family Bay Area home. The average electric heat pump water heater was estimated to cost $7,071 - a difference of $3,496.

Last June, the South Coast Air Quality Management District board in Los Angeles voted 7-5 to reject a proposal like the Bay Area’s to phase out residential gas-powered water heaters and furnaces in the Los Angeles basin. District board members cited high costs to residents and the threats of lawsuits from the Trump administration that could result in a court ruling more broadly reducing powers of the air district.

Ray Mueller, an air district board member and San Mateo County supervisor, cited both, and called for the Bay Area rule to be delayed at least 21 months.

“This is a historic expansion of the district’s regulatory power into this space,” Mueller said. “Do we want to do that at the current time under the current administration? I can’t think of a worse time to do this.”

The air district board has 24 members. On Wednesday, 10 generally voiced support for the rules and eight suggested delaying them or making them voluntary, with rebates and other incentives instead of a mandate. The remaining six either didn’t speak or did not attend the meeting.

“I wonder if instead of enforcing it we should spend money on rebates,” said board member Dionne Adams, the mayor of Pittsburg.

Some credits and rebates still exist from the state, cities and utilities. They range from a few hundred dollars to a few thousand, depending on income level and location. They can be found at switchison.org - a coalition of environmental groups and contractors supporting the shift to electric appliances.

Other board members said the health impacts from pollution caused by gas water heaters and furnaces should be considered as costs also.

“Change is not easy,” said board member Vicki Veenker, who is vice mayor of Palo Alto. “We shouldn’t pretend it is. But resisting change is not easy either. It has a cost and in this instance, it is health. The cost of a lost life or loss of quality of life is incalculable.”

Another board member, Chris Clark, the vice mayor of Mountain View, also supported the rules and said other generations of elected officials made difficult environmental choices.

“I’m deeply thankful that generations before me recognized the dangers of asbestos, and mercury, and fossil fuels,” he said, “and made politically difficult decisions in those moments and probably took a hit politically.”

Boardmember Gabe Quinto, the mayor of El Cerrito, said California’s budget challenges, made worse by Trump administration cuts to Medicaid and other programs, are a key factor. He supported a two-year delay.

“Most Californians will not be able to afford this,” he said. “The state with deficits for years ahead will not be able to afford this.”

The board will take a final vote in October.

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This story was originally published May 13, 2026 at 4:18 PM.