Exclusive: S.F. tourism expected to grow in 2026 as AI boom boosts conferences
San Francisco's tourism sector is expected to see continued growth in 2026, despite rising fuel prices and geopolitical disruptions amid the Iran war.
The city is projected to welcome 24.2 million visitors this year, up from 23.7 million last year. Tourism spending is expected to rise to $9.9 billion this year from $9.4 billion in 2025, according to a forecast by San Francisco Travel, the city's tourism bureau.
This year's spending is still projected to be lower than 2019's record $9.6 billion, after adjusting for inflation.
Tourism remains one of the city's biggest economic engines, supporting 63,900 jobs and generating $655 million in tax revenue last year. Job growth in the local leisure and hospitality sector, which includes hotels and restaurants, has outpaced all other job sectors in the past year, according to state data. The Super Bowl helped bolster February's job growth.
A key factor for the city's improved tourism outlook is an increase in convention bookings, fueled in part by the artificial intelligence boom. There are 38 Moscone Center events booked in 2026, generating 674,000 hotel room nights, up 6% from last year. Half are tech conferences.
"The biggest improvement is our convention numbers," said Anna Marie Presutti, CEO of San Francisco Travel. In the wake of the pandemic, the city lost events hosted by companies including Oracle, Google and Meta but business has since rebounded.
June alone will see a half-dozen conferences at Moscone Center, including AI events organized by Snowflake and Databricks, as well as a Microsoft AI event at Fort Mason.
That will help offset weaker growth in international visitors. Overnight international visitors in San Francisco are expected to rise slightly to 2.3 million this year from 2.2 million last year.
Some leisure travelers and conference attendees have stayed away from San Francisco and the rest of the U.S. amid President Donald Trump's crackdown on immigration and hostility towards foreign governments. Visitors to the U.S. declined 5.5% last year despite record-high global tourism spending.
June's World Cup events, which includes games at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, have also been disappointing for hotels.
"It's really been a bust across the United States," Presutti said. "We didn't lean into that as much," instead focusing on conference bookings. Unlike the Super Bowl, the World Cup won't have a single fan-focused event at Moscone Center, she said.
Corporate events, particularly in tech, have become the tourism sector's major economic driver, while events by medical and professional associations have diminished since COVID. Many continuing education events moved online during COVID and stayed there.
"It's such a big shift," Presutti said. The American Dental Association, for instance, canceled its 2026 meeting in Indianapolis, citing lower attendance and rising costs.
San Francisco's reliance on the tech sector could be a disadvantage if the AI boom fizzles out, and Presutti said Moscone Center is seeking to host other types of events as well, such as its first electronic music concert last year.
Conferences aren't immune to drops in international visitors. GDC Festival of Gaming saw a 30% plunge in attendance this year, in part because of foreign game developers staying away. Presutti said that conference also shifted away from lower-cost student badges, which contributed to the losses.
Some prospective foreign visitors have canceled trips to the U.S. because of fears of detainment at the border. San Francisco's longstanding safety concerns also haven't entirely gone away, despite a widespread decline in crime incidents.
On a recent trip to Asia with Mayor Daniel Lurie and San Francisco hotel managers, Presutti heard from locals who were still concerned about visiting San Francisco because of street conditions and safety perceptions.
"Over there, that's still their No. 1 concern," she said.
Combined with rising travel expenses, particularly fuel costs, there are still major challenges for the tourism industry. Surveys have shown that people feel positive about traveling during the upcoming summer season, but are still hesitant about booking trips in the face of higher prices, Presutti said.
San Francisco's average hotel occupancy in 2026 is expected to be 69%, up from 67% last year but still down from around 82% in 2019 - another sign the city hasn't fully recovered, she said.
The next few weeks leading up to the summer travel season will be "critical," she said.
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This story was originally published May 7, 2026 at 10:32 AM.