Padres Daily: How low can they go; manufacturing slowdown; Giolito better

Good morning from Philadelphia,

Manny Machado assessed this to be rock bottom.

"I don't think it can get worse," he said.

Maybe.

"There is only one way: up," he said.

Maybe.

The Padres have lost five straight games and nine of their past 10.

You can read in my game story (here) from yesterday's 6-4 loss to the Phillies about how another excellent reliever had a bad day and how the Padres' offense essentially consisted of two-run homers by Machado and Jackson Merrill and two singles by Bryce Johnson.

And while you can see why Machado would think things can't get worse, we know that they can.

The last time the Padres went 1-9 over a 10-game stretch was in 2023. The time before that was 2021.

You will recognize those as the only seasons since 2020 that did not end with the Padres in the playoffs.

There are quotes in the game story professing how long a season it is.

Anyone who regularly reads this newsletter knows I am fond of context and perspective.

It is a long season.

All but 11 of the 52 World Series teams since 2000 have had at least one five-game losing streak during the season they made the Series.

Seven of the past 22 teams to participate in a World Series (2020 excluded) did so in a season in which they went 1-9 at one point.

So there you go. That's perspective.

Here is some more: This is ugly.

Something has to change.

The offense would be a good place to start.

"Yeah, duh," Machado said. "There’s no question (about) it. I don’t know how many times I’m gonna talk about it. Yeah. We want to win, we gotta f-ing hit."

We have spent a lot of time on the Padres' offense, but the horrible road trip they just completed, during which they hit .187 while losing the final five games, is a good time to run through some particulars.

• The Padres' .216 batting average is not just worst in the major leagues this season, it is the worst in team history through 61 games.
• The Padres' .651 OPS ranks last in the majors this season and is the organization's lowest through 61 games since 2014.
• The Padres are the only team in the major leagues to not have a single player with at least 200 plate appearances and an OPS+ of at least 100, the threshold that signifies an average offensive player. They are one of three teams to not have at least two such players and one of five teams to not have at least three such players.
• The Padres' do have Gavin Sheets with 193 plate appearances and a 126 OPS+, Ty France with 116 plate appearances and a 138 OPS+ and Miguel Andujar with 190 plate appearances and a 101 OPS+. But there are 18 teams that have at least three players with at least 116 plate appearances and an OPS+ of 120 or higher.

The guys who the Padres have invested in, who they have built their team around, who they expected to be well above average offensively are mostly performing well below average.

Well …

Padres manager Craig Stammen made a great point and then a point we can dispute to some extent.

"Offense is what creates momentum and energy," Stammen said after yesterday's game. "And when there is less of it, there’s less momentum and there’s less energy, and everybody feels like they’ve got to be the person that figures it out. And in baseball, it’s not a game where you can just take over.

"There’s no pick and roll, there’s no isolation, there’s no, ‘We’re going to hand the ball off to our best running back (or) the quarterback is going to handle the game.' There is none of that in baseball. We've got to figure it out together and as a team, and it takes all parts of that machine working together to help us win a game."

A team scoring is most often what creates energy and the perception of energy. That is something we would all do well to remember when assessing whether a team looks flat. There has hardly ever been a team that looks energized when it is getting four hits a game.

And while Stammen’s contention that a baseball team cannot be carried by an individual or two makes sense, it just isn't true. This is a deeper Padres team than most in recent years, but they were built to be carried.

Machado, Merrill and Tatis have done it before.

Teams all over the league are essentially being carried by two or three players. And most of those duos or trios doing the heavy lifting are the players expected to be doing so.

In the six games the Padres and Phillies played over the past 11 days, Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper reached base at a .420 clip and hit two home runs apiece.

Here is what the Padres' Big Three did.

Merrill went 3-for-6 against Cristopher Sánchez and on Wednesday drove in the only run against Sánchez in more than a month. Merrill and Machado had the homers yesterday.

"Trending up," Machado said.

Maybe.

Manufacturing slowdown

The No.1 issue with the Padres by a lot is that Machado is batting .174 with a .619 OPS.

By a lot, that is the biggest issue.

To repeat, that is a huge problem.

It would also be extremely helpful if Tatis slugged some more and Merrill provided more of what is expected from him.

But we spent the entire 2023 season waiting for the Padres' best players to perform, and they didn't until it was too late.

So, not to go all Mike Shildt, but …

What would you give for some sacrifice bunts this season? What about a groundball to the right side or a fly ball when a runner is on second base with no outs?

Yesterday, the Padres did not have many opportunities for productive outs since they didn't get a hit until the sixth inning. But France being stranded at first after a leadoff walk in the second was indicative of a trend of the Padres getting runners on at the start of innings, including to second base with no outs, and doing nothing to move them.

Now, they did begin to run more on this trip. It actually worked against them more than it helped, and the issue often ended up being that they couldn't get a hit with a runner in scoring position.

And it is difficult to reconcile whether small ball would make much difference when three Padres rank among the bottom 15% of MLB players in OPS since April 28.

Yes, they had a brief rebound in mid-May. But April 28 is the day the Padres' season turned. They were 19-9 going into that night's game against the Cubs, lost four straight and are 13-20 since.

And since then, Machado's .514 OPS is 165th out of 169 qualifying players. His .127 batting average is 169th. Bogaerts' .552 OPS is 161st. Merrill's .611 OPS is tied for 148th.

Finally, it must be pointed out that the Padres have faced an inordinate amount of excellent starting pitching. I have quantified that several times this season.

The Phillies just threw Aaron Nola, Sánchez and Zack Wheeler against them. When Aaron Nola is the worst of the three pitchers you faced, you had a tough task.

Tatis noted yesterday the "quality of the starters" and said, "But we've got to find a way to win."

Giolito’s improvement

Lucas Giolito was sharper than he had been in any of his previous three starts for the Padres. Until he wasn't.

"This is the closest I’ve felt to being myself," he said. "The work is starting to pay off a little bit in the performance. But still it’s not good enough. Got to be better at limiting the runs when you’re in that kind of pitcher duel situation. Just a couple pitches I’d like to have back, maybe I could have sequenced a little better or just executed better. But I feel like I’m on the right track."

Giolito allowed a run on a walk and two singles in the fourth before Adolis Garcia led off the fifth with a home run and Justin Crawford followed with a double. Yuki Matsui took over from there and allowed Crawford to score because of an errant pickoff attempt.

While Giolito said he "wasn't looking at velo," his velocity was up markedly.

He averaged 91.8 mph on his four-seam fastball, up 1.1 mph from his previous three starts. He threw eight pitches between 92.1 and 92.9 mph, which is three more than he had thrown in his first three games combined.

Jouer de France

The Padres clearly believe France is among the best options to help them win, since he was batting cleanup yesterday for the first time and has started nine of the past 11 games.

Perhaps it is time to give him a try as a literal everyday player.

France, who was 0-for-2 yesterday but walked twice, is batting .333 (10-for-30) with two home runs and two doubles over his past 10 games. He is averaging a home run every 18.6 at-bats and an extra-base hit every 8.6 at-bats for the season, second on the team in both categories to Sheets among those with more than 52 at-bats. (Luis Campusano has 10 extra-base hits in 52 at-bats.)

France could DH while Miguel Andujar gets some rest. Andujar, who is on pace for more plate appearances than he has had since his rookie season in 2018, is batting .146/.196/.167 over his past 13 games. His last extra-base hit was 12 games ago.

BJ steps up

Give Johnson credit.

He started his ninth game of the season yesterday, and in his second and third plate appearances of the day (and third and fourth plate appearances in 13 days) he hit singles.

The switch-hitter has hardly been used. That is in part because the Padres have not had many leads nor many men on base, as his primary role is as a defensive replacement and pinch-runner.

The Padres called up Jase Bowen and Samad Taylor this week. Maybe Johnson earned himself another look as the extra outfielder who should get a chance to make a difference more regularly.

Tidbits

• Freddy Fermin went 0-for-3 yesterday to run his hitless streak to 29 at-bats. He is batting .126 (13-for-103), lowest in the major leagues among the 50 catchers with at least 63 at-bats.
• The Phillies have dominated the Padres even more than the Dodgers over the past six seasons. They are 31-12 (.721) against the Padres in that span, which includes the 2022 National League Championship Series. The Dodgers are 55-34 (.618) against the Padres since ’21.
• Wheeler allowed two runs in seven innings. It was the 29th quality start thrown against the Padres this season. Wheeler's 1.78 ERA in his past eight starts against the Padres is lowest by any pitcher who has made at least seven starts against them in that span (since July 24, 2018).
• You can read a story (here) I wrote yesterday on what Michael King has been working on and how he has been pretty good for a guy who has not been able to command his best pitch virtually the entire season. King starts tonight against the Mets.
• Correction: I wrote in yesterday's newsletter that Bowen was 0-for-6 with four strikeouts in his first two games. I completely spaced on his first big-league hit. (He is now 1-for-8 with five strikeouts.)

All right, that's it for me. Early flight this morning and a game tonight.

Talk to you tomorrow.

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