Knicks Will Beat Spurs in NBA Finals And It Comes Down to Three Factors
It's difficult to predict who will come out on top of this year's rematch of the 1999 NBA Finals between two teams with many similarities: the San Antonio Spurs and New York Knicks.
This year's championship game will feature two up-and-coming squads, each led by MVP-level players in the Knicks Jalen Brunson and the Spurs' Victor Wembanyama, both of whom have gotten over the hump for the first time in their respective careers. For many, it seems as if this should be an evenly-matched series. However, the way I see it, three distinct signs point to New York overcoming San Antonio and claiming its first title since 1973.
And it all starts with the Knicks' remarkable offensive firepower, which has drowned its opponents in recent weeks.
Knicks offense is an unstoppable force
Entering the NBA Finals, the Knicks are leading all playoff teams in points per game (119.9), assists per game (26.7) and field goal percentage (51.5%). Additionally, and perhaps most impressively, New York is also first in three-point percentage, shooting a staggering 40% from beyond the arc.
Brunson has paced the New York offense, scoring 26.9 points per game while shooting 35.2% from three-point range. However, it's not just his contributions that have propelled the Knicks' success, as they have seven players shooting 30% or better from three (minimum 2.5 attempts per game), with Landry Shamet leading the way at a torrid 60% clip.
One element that may play into this matchup is the rest vs. rust factor, which many have placed in favor of the Spurs. When the two teams take the floor for Game 1, it will have been nine days since the Knicks dispatched the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference Final, while the Spurs will have experienced only a four-day break.
With that said, if the Knicks can battle through any potential early-game rough patch, as they experienced to begin Game 1 against Cleveland, their offensive firepower will be too much for San Antonio to overcome.
New York is the deeper team
As displayed by Shamet's red-hot shooting, the production from the Knicks' bench has been critical to their postseason success. New York has nine players who have averaged over double-figure minutes per game this postseason, all of whom have averaged five or more points per contest.
San Antonio has eight players who have averaged over 10 minutes per game throughout the playoffs, only seven of whom have scored five or more points per contest. That's not to say the discrepancy is incredibly vast on paper. But when it comes to the postseason, the little things make a big difference, and the contributions from players like Shamet (13.5 minutes per game) and Miles McBride (19.1 minutes per game) have proven valuable in the playoffs and will continue to be in this series.
Mike Brown has the edge in experience
Finally, Knicks head coach Mike Brown has much more playoff experience than his counterpart, Mitch Johnson, who is in his first full season as San Antonio's leading man. This is Brown's 12th season as a head coach across three stops, throughout which he has accumulated a playoff record of 62-42, including a 12-2 run with the Knicks this year.
If this series is to be decided in the waning moments of a Game 7, New York will be well served to know they have a veteran on their side. Brown has been a member of four championship coaching staffs, three with the Golden State Warriors and one with the Spurs (2003), albeit as an assistant in each circumstance. He also led the Cleveland Cavaliers to the NBA Finals in 2007 as their head coach, only to be swept by, you guessed it, San Antonio.
Brown will be out for vengeance in this one.
My prediction: Knicks in six games.
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This story was originally published May 31, 2026 at 7:57 PM.