Here's Why Rams Drafting Ty Simpson Is Smarter Than You Think
No matter what you think of the player, the Los Angeles Rams' aggressive move to draft a quarterback in the first round is the right approach. Los Angeles shocked everyone by taking Ty Simpson at No. 13 overall. But recent history has shown that when smart teams appear to over-reach at quarterback, they're setting themselves up for sustained success.
Chicago Bears head coach Ben Johnson laid out the state of the game during his introductory press conference last year: "It's clear that modern football in the NFL is quarterback-driven. …. You can look at analytics right now. Quarterback success is a higher predictor of winning and losing than turnover ratio, which has been for 20-plus years. OK, that's changed."
The Rams wisely prioritized quarterback over every other position. There is no player they could have taken at No. 13 in the 2026 NFL Draft that has the potential to impact the team as positively in the long term. Critics argue that Los Angeles could be one player away from the Super Bowl and should have focused on this upcoming year. But the Rams' roster is loaded. Are we sure there was any player available that would get on the field consistently? The Rams already made a much smarter all-in move this offseason by trading the No. 29 pick for Kansas City Chiefs Pro Bowl cornerback Trent McDuffie.
Next year will be a much deeper quarterback draft class, but the Rams expect to be picking at the end of the first round and won't have a shot at Arch Manning, Dante Moore or C.J. Carr. Los Angeles could have entered next offseason with no quarterback and the No. 31 or No. 32 pick. Other teams - like the Jets and Cardinals - made picks with next year's QB class in mind. Los Angeles' timeline is different. It could easily end up in quarterback purgatory after Stafford retires. The Rams don't want to be like the Pittsburgh Steelers, who can't find a consistent starter since Ben Roethlisberger left.
Many draft analysts were skeptical about Simpson because he only started 15 games at Alabama and quarterbacks with small college sample sizes have struggled. With the Rams, however, Simpson will have the luxury of sitting for at least one season, unlike Anthony Richardson with the Colts. Head coach Sean McVay is the perfect coach to develop an inexperienced QB. Despite his glum appearance in the post-draft press conference, McVay is reportedly on board with the pick. Optimistically, McVay taking Simpson could be compared to Andy Reid coaching a raw Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City.
Los Angeles GM Les Snead was asked if the success of teams taking a quarterback before they needed one was an influence on his decision to select Simpson. "I think that's a net positive," Snead said. That's an understatement by Snead, who may not have wanted to admit he was copying other successful team-builders.
Looking at the winningest teams over the last decade, five of the top seven have followed this formula: drafting a QB in the first two rounds coming off a winning season.
Compared to some of these picks, the Rams taking Simpson appears much less risky…
1. Chiefs (.715 win percentage): Kansas City was 12-4 in 2016 and had a 32-year-old Pro Bowl QB in Alex Smith. And the Chiefs still gave up a haul to move up to No. 10 to take Patrick Mahomes. Now the move seems brilliant but plenty of Kansas City fans were upset at the time.
2. Bills (.640 win percentage): Buffalo's situation was slightly different, because 2017 starter Tyrod Taylor was not widely considered to be a franchise quarterback. Still, Taylor helped snap the Bills' playoff drought. They ended up trading Taylor to Cleveland before the draft and took Allen, who was coming off an inconsistent season at Wyoming.
3. Ravens (.624 win percentage): Joe Flacco was only 33 and coming off a winning season in 2017 when Baltimore traded back into the first round to land Lamar Jackson at No. 32. Flacco clearly had plenty of arm left … he won Comeback Player of the Year five years later in Cleveland. Jackson, however, was ready to go, winning the MVP in his second season.
4. Steelers (.618 win percentage)
5. Eagles (.615 win percentage): Philly reached the playoffs with 27-year-old Carson Wentz in 2019 and took Jalen Hurts in the second round. At the time, Hurts seemed like a luxury as a backup and some experts thought it undermined the starter. Then Wentz struggled in 2020 and Hurts took over, starting a run to two Super Bowls and a championship.
6. Seahawks (.615 win percentage)
7. Packers (.606 win percentage): Green Bay was 13-3 in 2019 with a 37-year-old Aaron Rodgers. The Packers traded up from No. 30 to No. 26 to take Jordan Love, who had struggled the previous season at Utah State. Love sat for three seasons and has led Green Bay to the playoffs three straight seasons.
The Rams are 11th in winning percentage over the last 10 years (.582). With the Simpson pick, they expect to be in the top five over the next decade. Whether they got the right player remains to be seen, but their process and thinking was on target.
The irony of this situation is that people are killing the Rams for wasting a first-round pick when they've proven they don't need them to win. Remember when Snead wore the "F--- Them Picks" T-shirt in the championship parade? They built this roster by making one first-round pick over the last nine years. They have never viewed rookies as win-now pieces and don't believe they hurt their Super Bowl chances by picking Simpson.
If everything goes according to plan, Stafford will go out on top after this season and Simpson will have long-term success in Los Angeles. Maybe then, no one will accuse winning teams of wasting a pick on a quarterback when it appears they don't need one.
Related: 4 Things to Watch on Day 2 of the 2026 NFL Draft
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This story was originally published April 24, 2026 at 10:08 AM.