Will the US Invade Cuba? Spy Flights Surge, New Sanctions, Havana Fumes
The U.S. has increased the pressure on Cuba’s top officials, turning the diplomatic, economic and military screws on Havana as concerns swell about whether Washington will invade the Caribbean nation.
President Donald Trump and his administration have long had Cuba’s communist leadership in their crosshairs, but in recent weeks slapped Havana with punishing new sanctions and maintained a near-total blockade on fuel supplies making it to the island that has been in place since January.
Already weakened by a decades-long U.S. embargo, dwindling supplies routinely plunge Cuba’s residents into blackouts as garbage mounts in streets in a country that has seen its vital tourist trade dry up.
The U.S. is also thought to have ramped up intelligence-gathering flights off the Cuban coast, while the White House has repeatedly hinted at a possible military takeover of the island since U.S. forces swept into Venezuela and captured then-leader Nicolás Maduro in Caracas at the start of 2026.
Cuba was heavily dependent on Venezuela’s oil exports and is now clinging onto a lifeline of limited fuel deliveries from Russia the U.S. has allowed through to Cuba’s ports.
Trump joked earlier this month the U.S. could “almost immediately” take over Cuba, suggesting the world’s largest aircraft carrier, the USS Abraham Lincoln, may approach Cuban shores and force officials to “give up” once the U.S. ends its war against Iran.
Havana says U.S. threats have reached “dangerous” levels but the island’s authorities wouldn’t be intimidated.
Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel, told Newsweek during an interview in the Cuban capital last month that the country would retaliate against any U.S. military attack with guerilla-style tactics, which would incur “immense losses” on both sides.
Intelligence Gathering Surges
The U.S. has increased its intelligence-gathering operations near Cuba, CNN reported on Sunday.
The U.S. military has carried out more than two dozen flights since early February, including using reconnaissance drones and piloted aircraft like the RC-135V Rivet Joint, which hoovers up electronic signals to detect communications or work out where certain types of equipment are, like where air defense systems are deployed.
Most of the flights concentrated on Cuba’s largest cities of Havana and Santiago de Cuba, according to the analysis of open-source flight routes. Newsweek has reached out to the White House for comment via email.
Analysts pointed to an increase in surveillance flights ahead of U.S. military operations in Venezuela at the start of 2026 and in Iran, shortly before the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on the country at the end of February.
American operations in Venezuela and Iran were both preceded by a huge military build-up close to the countries.
With the U.S. military still tied up in the Middle East, there’s no sign yet of this kind of ballooning U.S. presence in sight of Cuba, which would likely be needed for any major military operation, especially one that involves ground troops.
But Trump’s remarks earlier this month, suggesting U.S. warships, jets and thousands of troops could stop off around Cuba when they return from the Middle East, indicate this kind of deployment is being considered for after a peace deal is inked with Iran, although this agreement has been elusive.
New Sanctions
The U.S. said on Thursday it was putting additional sanctions on a business empire run by Cuba’s military, as well as a joint venture run with Canada.
The measures came shortly after the United Nations warned the U.S. energy blockade of the island amounted to “energy starvation.”
Essential services have been pushed “to the brink” and could violate the human rights of Cuba’s population, U.N. experts warned in a statement.
Tens of thousands of people are waiting to receive surgery, including around 11,000 children, Cuban authorities said in mid-March.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said sanctions showed the U.S. government’s commitment to national security and would continue until officials in Havana make “all necessary political and economic reforms.” The son of Cuban immigrants, Rubio is well known for his disdain of the government in Havana.
Díaz-Canel called the economic measures a “unilateral aggression against a nation and a population whose sole ambition is to live in peace.”
“The additional economic blockade measures announced today worsen the already difficult situation our country faces,” he said.
The U.S. had already unveiled fresh sanctions on Cuba just days earlier, which Havana slammed as “collective punishment on the Cuban people.”
The sanctions homed in on Cuba’s security institutions, the island’s financial, defense and energy sectors, plus anyone the U.S. accuses of being “complicit in government corruption or serious human rights violations.”
The Rhetoric
Washington. is not looking to launch military action against Cuba in the near future, anonymous U.S. officials told The Associated Press in an article published on Thursday.
But Trump has persistently alluded to U.S. operations against Havana, and the unnamed officials said military options were still on the table.
Shortly after the U.S. captured Maduro from his compound in the Venezuelan capital, Trump warned Havana to “make a deal before it’s too late.”
The U.S. president then floated a “friendly takeover” of the island, and remarked in March he thought he would “have the honor of taking Cuba.”
Trump has said Cuba could be next on the U.S.’ hit last once operations in the Middle East wrap up.
Talks between Cuban and American delegations have not yielded much success, and the unidentified U.S. officials told the AP they were not hopeful that Havana would accept a U.S. offer that would provide extensive humanitarian aid to Cuba, along with support for the island’s infrastructure and two years of free internet access via Starlink.
Rubio has said Cuba turned down $100 million in humanitarian aid, which Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez called a “fable of an alleged offer” designed to turn Cuban and U.S. citizens away from the government in Havana.
The U.S. has supplied at least $9 million in aid to Cuba since early November to help those living in parts of the island most affected by Hurricane Melissa, which devastated Cuba last year.
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This story was originally published May 11, 2026 at 6:01 AM.