Analysis: Kasich would change election map, win White House | The Fresno Bee

Either Donald Trump or Ted Cruz would lose the fall presidential election to Hillary Clinton in a state-by-state electoral trounce identical or nearly identical to the one that crushed Mitt Romney four years ago, according to a new analysis being released Wednesday.

But John Kasich would rewrite the map, taking several states away from the Democratic column and winning the White House – if he could win the Republican nomination, which right now seems well out of his grasp.

Kasich, the governor of Ohio, would win the general election by beating Clinton in several areas where Obama triumphed over Romney, notably Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, according to the study by Morning Consult, a nonpartisan media and polling company. It provided an early copy to McClatchy.

The key difference is likability. Kasich scores well. Trump and Cruz do not.

Kasich’s campaign said Wednesday the analysis echoed his argument to GOP primary voters that he’s their best bet to win a general election.

“It’s clear that John Kasich is not only the GOP candidate best prepared to be President, he is the only one who can actually win,” said campaign spokesman Mike Schrimpf. “Ted Cruz and Donald Trump would lose in an electoral landslide and cost us critical seats in the U.S. Senate and House.”

To win the White House, a candidate needs 270 of the 538 electoral votes. Four years ago, Obama won 332 and Romney won 206.

To forecast this year’s election with Clinton as the Democratic nominee, Morning Consult surveyed 44,000 registered voters from January until the first week of this month, then used a statistical technique to break down opinions into state-level results.

The firm did not test Bernie Sanders, whose campaign took hold after the polling started.

The electoral college forecast:

– Clinton 332, Cruz 206.

– Clinton 328, Trump 210.

– Kasich 304, Clinton 234.

Clinton would hold almost all the Obama states in the Northeast, Upper Midwest and Pacific Coast against Cruz or Trump. She’d also take the swing states of Colorado, Florida, Ohio and Virginia.

But the campaign would matter: The analysis found that a Clinton-Trump contest would have tight races in Florida, Indiana, Maine, Michigan, Nevada, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

A Clinton-Cruz matchup would produce the same results as Obama-Romney, with each party winning the same states.

The only swing from 2012 in a Clinton-Trump race would be Maine, which would go to Trump.

Kasich benefits because he’s seen favorably by 38 percent of registered voters and unfavorably by about one-third, according to the April 1-3 Morning Consult poll. Trump’s negative rating was 60 percent and Cruz’s was 52 percent.

Kasich also has appeal for independents. Thirty percent viewed him unfavorably, while 37 percent liked him. Cruz was seen unfavorably by 56 percent, nearly twice as many as viewed him favorably. Trump’s marks among independents were 60 percent unfavorable, 27 percent favorable.

A McClatchy-Marist poll released last week found that Sanders, a Vermont independent senator who’s mounted a strong challenge to Clinton, would fare better against Trump or Cruz than Clinton would. The Morning Consult poll did not measure Sanders’ support.

Kasich has used his electability as a cornerstone of his underdog campaign for the nomination , and he’s stressed his numbers repeatedly as he campaigns in New York this week.

On Tuesday, he told the Women’s National Republican Club in New York City that the GOP can follow one of two paths this year. Without referring to Trump or Cruz by name, he warned that one path “exploits anger, encourages resentment, turns fear into hatred and divides people.” The other, his approach, calls for comity and cooperation with all points of view.

Polls suggest Kasich might finish second to Trump in the New York primary next Tuesday. Kasich then hopes for strong showings in April 26 primaries in states with more moderate Republican constituencies, including Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island.

But he’s far behind in convention delegates – his 143 trail even the 170 of Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., who suspended his campaign a month ago. Kasich has won only his home state, and he’s counting on a deadlocked convention that will turn to him on a second and third ballot because it sees his general-election strength.

Morning Consult did have some qualifiers. Nearly 1 in 6 registered voters remain undecided. The survey measured registered, not likely, voters. About 80 percent of registered voters went to the polls in 2012.

And of course, the pollsters warned, “much can change throughout the spring, summer and fall.”