Columnist Barry Ritholtz says the data overwhelmingly show that the skill set of the predictive economic pundits is no better than a coin toss. The odd person gets these forecasts about the economy and stock markets right each year, but the lack of any sort of consistent winners and losers means that, mathematically, it is a random outcome.
Columnist Barry Ritholtz says the data overwhelmingly show that the skill set of the predictive economic pundits is no better than a coin toss. The odd person gets these forecasts about the economy and stock markets right each year, but the lack of any sort of consistent winners and losers means that, mathematically, it is a random outcome. Gentry Mullen The Kansas City Star file
Columnist Barry Ritholtz says the data overwhelmingly show that the skill set of the predictive economic pundits is no better than a coin toss. The odd person gets these forecasts about the economy and stock markets right each year, but the lack of any sort of consistent winners and losers means that, mathematically, it is a random outcome. Gentry Mullen The Kansas City Star file

Barry Ritholtz: Rely on forecasters? Forget about it

December 04, 2015 8:00 AM